Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
Rocket Lab should double by June 2026 if SpaceX IPOs at around $1.5T, because as the clear number two with similar capabilities it is valued at only $38B, a gap that looks far too big. At $1.7T, SpaceX would trade at over 200x its roughly $8B in EBITDA, as reported on the All-In podcast, an insane multiple. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's revenue growth is about double SpaceX's at a similar valuation, making it the better buy. Its much lower revenue base also lets it grow faster for longer. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab should see money flow back once SpaceX's rich valuation corrects. SpaceX's listing day could be sell-the-news, pulling Rocket Lab back to $90-100 at most, but at roughly 90-100x sales it is valued about the same as SpaceX at around 115x. With expected Nasdaq inclusion on June 22 and capital rotating from SpaceX into quality space stocks, a lower-high move toward the $130 target banks just raised is possible. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's $2.2 trillion valuation is hard to justify next to Amazon's $2.7 trillion. SpaceX has $23 billion of revenue and is losing money, while Amazon has $775 billion and is printing cash with improving margins. Claims that SpaceX has a faster path to $1.5 trillion in revenue have no chance. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab makes little sense to buy over SpaceX, whose IPO is priced at a similar share price with far larger revenue. SpaceX targets $135 a share with $18.7B of revenue, while Rocket Lab trades at $115 with $600M. x.comÂ
Space stocks such as Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and BlackSky move together because funds buy exposure to a narrative rather than single names. As with semiconductors, once the space theme gains traction, money flows into everything in that bucket. x.com x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
