Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Ambarella could be a robotics winner over the next few years, with a decent chance of accelerating revenue that would be very good for the stock. After a 50% retracement from recent highs, the stock is trying to bounce off the VWAP from its March lows, with earnings now past. As Stanley Druckenmiller says, the present is not what moves stock prices. x.com
Ambarella is a robotics play, not a speculative stock, and its 20% earnings-day drop did not reflect the business. Per @yianisz, it beat revenue and EPS and guided above consensus, making the selloff a valuation reset, with Hanwha, Edge AI, automotive and the CV8 platform as long-term drivers. At about $400M of trailing revenue and just over $3B market cap, the valuation is not crazy; the market wants frothy growth forecasts it can't yet see. The open question is growth and scalability. x.com … Show more
Ambarella is a high-conviction Buy over 2-3 years as a physical AI and edge robotics platform Wall Street still prices like a legacy camera-chip maker. Its 5nm and 2nm chips carry ASPs well above today's $15, and an $800M+ Hanwha deal over 10+ years adds a baseline near 20% of current scale. Near term there is little reason to get involved before clearer strength: inventory days jumped from 99 to 145, free cash flow was -$29.6M, and the CEO warned DRAM prices may delay Q2 rollouts. x.com x.com … Show more
Ambarella ran too hard, its multiple expanding to price in a 3–5 year narrative, while next-twelve-month growth decelerates to 10–15%. Its SoCs pair with DRAM and NAND, so spiking memory costs pressure customers' builds and feed back as an indirect demand headwind. New revenue, such as a potential 10-year $800M LTA and $100M of lifetime robotics revenue, is long-dated and not yet secured. Physical-AI stocks will be hammered hardest in any correction, though the setup is interesting longer term. … Show more
Ambarella's Q1 points to a compounding AI growth story despite the stock falling. Revenue rose 16.9% to $100.4M on a double beat, with record automotive revenue as AI penetrates commercial vehicles, and Q2 guided to $105–111M. Its CEO says new advanced-AI products carry ASPs well above current levels, so growth comes from higher revenue per unit too. It added a $50M buyback, holds $277M with no debt, and signed an $800M+ decade-long partnership with Hanwha. x.com
Ambarella is preferred over Allegro MicroSystems because it carries no debt and its cash on hand keeps dilution risk low. It is also deliberately looking for an acquirer, potentially Nvidia for its edge-AI use case. x.com
Ambarella's turn toward AI chips comes too late, and Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD and Intel's Mobileye should steamroll it with vertical integration and LLM-style chip design expertise. Once GoPro's main chip supplier, it sat for five years without accomplishing much. It has a history of underperformance and lackluster revenue growth, and co-founder and chief chip designer Leslie Kohn stepped down as part-time CTO. Its 22% jump, which @StockSavvyShay ties to edge AI, came on no news. x.com
Ambarella is the purest profitable way to own the second AI buildout, inference inside cameras, drones and cars, which the market barely prices. Edge AI is 80% of revenue, which grew 37% to $390.7 million. At the power-limited edge, its chips deliver about 5x a GPU's performance per watt, a moat Nvidia cannot follow. It trades at about 6x EV/sales with 60% gross margins, but 80x-plus earnings because profit is reinvested. Growth may slow to 10-15% next year; the risk is price, not business. … Show more
Ambarella's appeal as a perfect acquisition target is playing out sooner than expected. Edge AI chips make up 80% of its revenue, which hit a record $391M in FY2026, up 37%, and it has 370+ customer projects in production, a Hanwha deal worth $800M+ and a 15-year CVflow software moat with switching costs measured in years. Its CV3-AD chip also handles camera, radar and lidar on a single die. x.com
Ambarella has become a pure-play edge AI chip company as AI inference migrates from the cloud to devices. Edge AI silicon is now 80% of the business, and revenue rose 37.2% to $390.7 million last fiscal year. Latency, bandwidth costs and privacy push inference onto drones, cars and robots, which its CV3-AD chips serve locally. A Hanwha agreement could bring up to $800 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 marks a profitability inflection, though GAAP results still show a loss. x.com
Robotics is moving from a far-off narrative to a feasible industry not far away, and it will be the natural complement to AI. Ouster, Arbe Robotics, Ambarella and XPeng are the names to own for it. x.com
