Faster-than-expected US growth is encouraging for stocks, though inflation remains elevated. Q3 GDP rose 3.4% versus 3.2% expected, while the GDP price index rose 2.2% versus 3.2% forecast; PCE inflation matched expectations. x.com 

US stocks can keep rising even as yields climb, because corporate earnings growth far outpaces inflation. In 1994, bond yields rose 263 basis points while earnings grew 18%; the S&P 500 went flat, then 1995 brought one of the greatest bull runs ever. Today rates are up 100 basis points against 32% earnings growth, and real GDP growth could reach 7%. Earnings and inflation drive stocks and bonds, not the other way around. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Broader participation, earnings growth and lower multiples support US equities into year-end, with seasonality also favorable. The equal-weight S&P rose 1.95% this week while the cap-weighted index slipped 0.05%; EPS is up 38% so far and multiples are down 17% year to date. The 10-year yield fell 41 basis points. x.com 

US large-cap equities look stretched as the S&P 500's 4.7% earnings yield sits below the 5.2% Treasury yield, the first extended stretch since 1999-2000. 2026 EPS estimates imply 32% growth and a 21.2x P/E. The 10-year yield hit 5.28%, its highest since 2007, which pressures long-duration, high-P/E stocks most. Since recent inflation is mostly an oil supply shock, yields could fall once the war with Iran ends and Brent eases. x.com  x.com 

Improving breadth and GPUs massively outrunning depreciation costs put US-equity risk/reward heavily in bulls' favour. Some 59% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average; the Nasdaq 100 is positive over five trading days, and small caps bounced off their 200-day average. Buy gradually, as the selloff may not be completely over. x.com 

Post-midterm seasonality and hedge funds' flip from long to short make this reset the next great opportunity to build for a bull market driven by the Innovation Revolution. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 29.9% on average over the next 15 months in all 19 comparable years. This selloff looks pre-war driven; military action looks nearly certain and may be the most anticipated and discounted ever. A 90-day, 32% Nasdaq bear market preceded the dot-com era's final 18-month melt-up. x.com  x.com 

US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more