Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can invest heavily and still generate free cash flow that makes memory stocks look strikingly cheap. In 2027, they will spend $150B combined on capex yet generate $500-600B of free cash flow, against just $1.8T of combined enterprise value, or less than 3.5x 2027 FCF. Long memory. x.com
CXMT's poor HBM yields make a global HBM share challenge to Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix unlikely. Per Reuters reports shared by @jukan05, HBM3E yields are about 20% and test performance resembles SK hynix's older HBM3, though small-scale production may begin within two months. CXMT's DRAM output cannot even meet Chinese demand; HBM4 may be years away. x.com x.com x.com
Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
TrendForce: ... 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price increases confirmed at +13–18% QoQ, moderating from +18–23% in 3Q26. ... OEM DRAM inventories rose from 6–9 weeks at the end of 3Q26 to 7–10 weeks in early 4Q26, with further accumulation expected during the quarter. ... Korean suppliers are set to deepen their PC DRAM supply cuts to more than 40% YoY, accelerating the shift toward server DRAM. x.com
AlvaMixedContinued PC DRAM price gains support cash generation, while rising customer inventories flag demand risk; planned Korean supply cuts shift the producers' exposure toward server DRAM in 2027.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
For Asia's AI infrastructure builders, their exceptional margins could be hard to sustain, Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana said. "Over time, new manufacturing facilities, additional memory production and greater availability of computing infrastructure could reduce shortages and put pressure on pricing," she said. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesIf additional memory production reduces shortages and pressures pricing, it weakens the thesis's assumption that Samsung and SK hynix can sustain the margins needed to generate $500–600B of 2027 free cash flow.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
[Replying to @SKundojjala: "Samsung 3Q26"] HBM4E samples shipped first in industry in May, positive initial feedback ... HBM4E mass production starts 1H27, volume ramp in 2H27 x.com
AlvaSupportsSamsung's planned HBM4E mass production in the first half of 2027 highlights the advancing technology benchmark CXMT must reach while preparing limited HBM3E production.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Samsung Electronics: Chip Business Posted Record Profit of KRW106.5T in 3Q ... Net profit for the three months ended September jumped more than six times from a year earlier to 75.136 trillion won, though missing the 86.13 trillion won consensus estimate of analysts in a poll by FactSet. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedRecord chip-business profit supports Samsung's earnings strength, while group net profit roughly 13% below consensus highlights the risk of results falling short of elevated expectations.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Samsung Electronics said on Thursday its operating profit rose nearly ninefold to a record high in the third quarter, driven by robust demand for AI chips tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsRecord profit driven by AI-chip demand supports the thesis that strong AI memory demand is sustaining earnings at the leading suppliers.Amy E. Hood
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Microsoft
In Azure, we expect revenue growth of 49% to 50% in constant currency with continued efficiency gains across our CPU and GPU fleet, helping to offset some 3P GPU-as-a-Service contracts that have been delayed to H2. Customer demand continues to exceed available supply
AlvaSupportsAzure's 49–50% growth outlook and demand exceeding available capacity strengthen the case for sustained infrastructure investment and associated memory demand.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
MICROSOFT CFO SAYS ... CALENDAR-YEAR CAPITAL SPEND SHOULD BE ABOUT $170 BLN ... MICROSOFT EXPECTS TO CONTINUE TO BE CASH FLOW POSITIVE IN FY2027 x.com
AlvaSupportsThe roughly $170 billion spending plan supports strong cloud infrastructure demand, while expected positive cash flow in FY2027 suggests Microsoft can sustain investment without relying solely on external funding.Reuters
Global News Agency
MICROSOFT OUTLOOK Q2 CAPEX EXPECTED TO BE OVER $50 BILLION - PRESENTATION tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsMicrosoft's outlook for more than $50 billion in quarterly capex supports the thesis that cloud demand is driving substantial investment in data-center infrastructure, which can sustain memory demand.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$MSFT Microsoft CFO ... In the second half of the fiscal year, we currently expect CapEx spend to accelerate, primarily from CPUs—including higher memory and storage costs—and GPUs, as well as the 3P capacity deliveries that shifted to H2. x.com
AlvaSupportsExpected spending acceleration explicitly includes higher memory and storage costs, supporting pricing strength for memory suppliers alongside continued cloud infrastructure investment.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$MSFT CEO: "Accelerating demand led to us adding 24 new data centers across five continents this quarter. x.com
AlvaSupportsAdding 24 data centers in response to accelerating demand supports continued deployment of cloud infrastructure that consumes memory, including HBM.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Alphabet CFO: "... ... our full-year 2026 CapEx guidance range of $195 to $205 billion remains unchanged. We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027, and will provide further details on our Q4 call." x.com
AlvaSupportsMaintained 2026 spending guidance and a planned significant increase in 2027 support continued infrastructure investment behind the big three's HBM demand.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Microsoft says ... its Azure cloud business had accelerated revenue growth of 48% in the fiscal first quarter tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsAzure's acceleration supports the thesis that AI-driven cloud demand is strong, reinforcing the demand backdrop for memory suppliers.
Sundar Pichai
CEO of Google and Alphabet
Google Cloud revenue grew 103%, powered by extraordinary demand for our AI infrastructure and AI solutions. x.com
AlvaSupportsGoogle Cloud's 103% revenue growth, driven by AI infrastructure and solutions, strengthens the demand backdrop for the big three's HBM businesses.
Dylan Bristot
Growth at Nebius
The model has already squeezed the stored state down to about 7 KB per token, yet the traffic still writes roughly 4 petabytes of new cache data every day. Keep just the last hour and you’re looking at around 165 TB (several times more than the high speed memory sitting inside the entire rack) ... What scales with agent traffic is the cache tier, the high speed memory plus the storage that feeds it. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe estimated 165 TB needed for just one hour of Deepseek cache illustrates how agent traffic can expand memory and storage demand even when fresh GPU computation remains modest.
Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
Secondly, they will easily climb the yield curve over the next 6 months. Yield will reach 50%-70% by Q2 Unlike lithography, WFE tools are not a bottleneck here The yield loss is happening at the bonding and TSV formation stage x.com
AlvaChallengesThe forecast that CXMT yields reach 50–70% by Q2 challenges the thesis's reliance on lagging Chinese HBM yields, with bonding and TSV execution rather than equipment access identified as the constraint.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Wolfe also estimates SK Hynix could generate enough free cash flow to repurchase 28% of its shares over two years, assuming its projected shareholder-return policy. x.com
AlvaSupportsPotential cash generation sufficient to repurchase 28% of shares over two years strengthens the buyback advantage underlying the preference for the big three, conditional on the projected return policy.Reuters
Global News Agency
Apple, Dell and HP are considering using Chinese memory chips in devices sold outside the United States, according to media reports, putting CXMT head-to-head against the Big Three in export markets. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesPotential adoption by major device makers outside the United States would give CXMT an export-market opening, weakening the view that Chinese cloud demand leaves it little room to challenge the Big Three globally.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
That's when SK Hynix and Korean peer Samsung Electronics are set to bring multiple new production sites into operation, with a total of seven new memory fabrication and packaging plants set to come online that year according to research firm Trendforce. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesTrendforce expects seven Samsung and SK hynix memory fabrication and packaging plants to come online in 2028, raising supply-side risk to sustained pricing at the big three.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
DRAM's server segment (including HBM) accounted for roughly 56% of DRAM revenue, up from ~49% a year earlier. x.com
AlvaSupportsSK hynix's server DRAM segment, including HBM, rose to 56% of DRAM revenue from about 49% a year earlier, showing growing exposure to the higher-growth market central to the big-three-versus-Seagate comparison.Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
So, CXMT's "HBM3E" (it's more like a better HBM3) runs at 8 Gbps ... The standard HBM3 is at 6.4 Gbps, and HBM3E is at 9.2 Gbps x.com
AlvaSupportsZephyr puts CXMT's HBM speed at 8 Gbps versus 9.2 Gbps for standard HBM3E, quantifying its disadvantage against the advanced products sold by the established suppliers.
