Wayne Liang
Asymmetric Investment Research, Trade Alerts & Toolkits
SpaceX faces heavy turbulence this week from its first earnings as a public company on August 4 and an August 6 lockup expiry that makes about 911M shares, roughly $116B, sellable. Much of that unlock fear may already be priced in after a roughly 50% drop from the peak, and once past the overhang a relief rally across space stocks should follow. It is still not one to buy for another few months. x.com
SpaceX looks like the biggest retail trap yet after its debt offering, so it is better to let the dust settle before buying. The removal of the pattern-day-trader rule and anti-flipping penalties add to the trap; IPOs such as Cerebras and Snowflake show the lesson of not jumping in early, and adjacent names work better as catalysts before listing. Long term it remains solid, and accumulation starts toward year-end. x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
SpaceX's post-earnings surge sets the stage for insiders to sell at better prices once the lockup expires, pointing to a major pullback below $100 around the August 6 share unlock. Insiders who bought at the IPO can already sell, and the stock was already falling after hours. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.com
SpaceX stock should fall this week because a 911 million-share unlock, about $100B, lands two days after earnings, and narrative will matter more than results. Expected revenue of $6.83B won't drive the move; any 3–5% post-earnings rise should reverse by week's end. x.com
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.com
SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com
