Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.com 

Crude oil is set to stay more expensive for longer because the supply chain disruption from the Iran conflict is real and will not be fixed soon. Its effects are already visible in Europe and likely in Asia. Even a supply shock lasting only a few weeks would take months or quarters to reverse, feeding global inflation and possibly rate hikes. The longer the situation lasts, the more pain and the longer the repair. x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil may need to reach $170 to rebalance, while markets are pricing only a short disruption. The IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, and Strait of Hormuz shipping has collapsed over 70%. The wider risk is that the Gulf relies on 56 desalination plants for 90% of its water and on imported food; both sides have struck desalination plants, and urea prices are up 20% as a quarter of nitrogen fertilizer trade transits the same chokepoint. x.com 

Crude oil's supply damage would persist even if the wars in Russia and Iran ended, because infrastructure is destroyed and tankers are damaged. Diesel has broken resistance alongside US 30-year yields; without a collapse in diesel driven by a severe stock-market drop and unemployment, both are expected to keep rising, setting up a harsher eventual downturn. x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Crude oil faces a structural repricing of energy risk, not a one-week spike, as both Saudi export routes are compromised at once. Drone strikes took out Petroline, the Hormuz bypass pipeline moving about 4 million barrels a day, while the Houthis seized Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Saudi output sits at a 30-year low. Brent rose 8.7% to $104.61 as the Fed hiked into it. Barrels stuck behind a strait are worth zero, favoring producers that avoid chokepoints. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to rise sharply in the short term as Saudi supply disruptions worsen. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing Reuters, Saudi Arabia suspended loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea port exporting up to 5 million barrels a day, after attacks on its East-West pipeline, with Brent near $110. Per @HormuzLetter, Saudi Aramco cancelled its September European allocations, with no Saudi cargoes to Europe until November. The big move likely comes within the next couple of days. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com