Robinhood looks set for a Q3 beat. BTIG raised its price target to $135 and kept a Buy after solid September month-to-date volumes, with crypto tracking its strongest month since February and event contracts heading toward $5.5 billion. x.comÂ
Kyle Reidhead
CEO & Analyst of Milk Road/Milk Road AI
Robinhood Chain remains a lasting revenue source for Robinhood even though its fee spike was never sustainable. Fees are already down more than 90% from their highs while transactions fell only about 50%, as the congestion and tech issues that inflated them eased; annualizing the peak was always a mistake. Chain is still very likely to earn millions a month and, with about 3x Coinbase's app users, could sustainably exceed Base's revenue. Activity may fizzle until bitcoin's next big price move. x.comÂ
Robinhood's record revenue and growing prediction-markets business support a near-term recovery in its stock after earnings. Q3 revenue reached $1.42B, crypto revenue of $120M beat the $114.1M estimate, and prediction-markets revenue rose sixfold year over year, though GAAP EPS missed at $0.51 versus $0.55. CEO Vlad Tenev said Robinhood plans to ramp support for Chain builders, bolstering the case for more ecosystem growth. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's prediction-market growth can support revenue regardless of crypto sentiment because event contracts, including sports betting, are less boom-and-bust than crypto. Its Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, or 12.2% of total revenue, versus $120 million from crypto trading. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growth looks more reliant on wallet share and the market backdrop because customer and active-user growth are weak. Revenue rose 12%, accounts 7% year over year, and net new funded accounts slowed one quarter after acquisition was re-prioritized; adjusted EPS growth unexpectedly turned negative. New customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate and monthly active users fell. MAU is volatile, but needs to improve next quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
Robinhood's growing prediction markets, options and Gold subscriptions make the $90s one of the most exciting times to buy. Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, up over sixfold, options rose 31% to $399 million, and Gold subscribers reached a record 5.2 million. Crypto revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million, and Dr. Crossroads reported misses on revenue and EPS; Robinhood remains a great buy as its international reach and banking services expand. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing revenue lines make the business more scalable as users and Gold subscriptions expand. Its Q3 slide shows 14 lines at or above $100M in annualized revenue, up from 11 in 2025. Funded customers reached 28.7M (+7% YoY), Gold subscribers 5.2M (+34%) and revenue per user $200 (+5%). The results were not mind-blowing: $1.424B revenue slightly missed estimates, while adjusted EPS of $0.60 beat. Last year's rapid growth is not sustainable. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's prediction-market revenue is cyclical because the biggest event, the US presidential election, comes only every four years and dwarfs most other bettable events. x.comÂ
Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.comÂ