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Late Stage Capitalism

Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience

25 Sep, 13:39Latest

CleanSpark is bad for shareholders because it loses money mining Bitcoin, at an all-in cost above $120K per coin. Even excluding about $670M of markdowns on its Bitcoin holdings, it lost almost $400M over the past year, and depreciation eats the rest of its so-called profits. Its shareholder equity is below what it has raised from investors, though its miners are still carried above their worth. This rebuts @Market_Maestros, who argues miners trade on EV/EBITDA and the losses are unrealized. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

CLSK

24 Sep, 15:05

CleanSpark's management enriches itself at shareholders' expense through dilution and private jets, while its debt-funded 20-year hosting contract offers thin returns. It lost over $1 billion in the last 12 months while massively diluting. On $2.75 billion of notes near 8%, five-year revenue of $1.3 billion faces about $850 million of interest plus roughly $575 million of depreciation. Over 20 years, refinancing at the same rate leaves at most about $55 million a year of average profit. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

CLSK

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

16 May

CLSK

CleanSpark is held back by its bitcoin mining identity: the market gives miners about a tenth of the upside potential, and the profitability gap plus added uncertainty is hard to justify. A complete pivot away from bitcoin would likely send the stock instantly higher, even though bitcoin is in the company's DNA. x.com

DVB

Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder

3 Aug

BTC

Bitcoin risks a mining death spiral if its price does not recover. With 95% of supply mined, mining profits have been in the dumpster for nearly a year and fees are only 5% of the reward, not offsetting the halving. Compounding losses would force miners to stop, even with free power, since staff and maintenance still cost money, and farms could be dumped as in the 2021 crash. Fewer miners and lower difficulty mean weaker security and less trust, opening the door to quantum or AI attacks. x.com … Show more

Michael Sikand

Investor, Autopilot Portfolio, Founder of Sikand Media

17 Jul

CLSK

CleanSpark's new AI lease is worth nearly twice its market cap, yet the stock has barely reacted amid the neocloud selloff, a coiled-spring setup. It signed a 20-year, $6.6 billion triple-net lease for 175MW with an investment-grade tech tenant, which also signed an LOI and exclusivity for CleanSpark's entire 885MW Texas portfolio. The rumored tenant is Meta, which is in talks to rent compute to Anthropic. A third of the float is short, and Leopold Aschenbrenner raised his stake about 7.5-fold. … Show more

Bluechip

Value Investor, Short Seller

4 Oct

BMNR

BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about $16 billion of Ethereum and faces massive losses as liquidity drains from crypto. Like Strategy, it is exposed to a collapse in crypto values. x.com

peony

Equity Investor & Researcher

4 Jun

IREN

KEEL

Bitcoin miners converting to AI infrastructure, such as IREN and Keel, are likely to be poor trades. For five years they have raised as much capital as possible and spent it on capex with no prospect of return, and the realistic base case is another dilution-fueled capex spree. They failed to generate shareholder returns even when bitcoin soared. The exception is a hard management reset, as at Core Scientific; the rest are run by the same people. Keel fell 9% on a planned $350 million offering. … Show more

Donald Dean

Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading

15 Oct

CLSK

CleanSpark's $2.28B in secured debt can fund its high-margin AI data-center hosting pivot without near-term share dilution. Its $6.6B, 20-year lease yields $330M annually in contracted revenue, and its Texas power pipeline offers up to 885 MW for hyperscale tenants. It holds roughly 13,000 Bitcoin; Wall Street consensus targets of $23.81 to $26 imply over 100% upside. x.com

Stephen Manning

Founder of Cash Flow University, Options Education, Public Setup/Risk/Exit Reviews

25 Aug

MSTR

Strategy's share price is a bet on the next buyer, not on anything that produces cash. It filed a $20.8B net loss for the first half of 2026, an accounting fact about bitcoin's price, yet the stock rose this month. Neither produces a dollar, so investors are pricing a chain of strangers. x.com

David Lawrence

Founder & CEO of Finite, Bitcoin Talent Intelligence

7 Oct

3350.T

Metaplanet's Q3 bitcoin sale and buyback revealed a lack of transparency and values misaligned with shareholders', after the Series 10 stock-rights episode. On Aug 12 CEO Simon Gerovich wrote that no bitcoin had been sold; nine days later 10,000 BTC began moving from its published addresses to Coinbase Prime, and the sale was disclosed only on Oct 5. Its shares will likely recover when bitcoin surges, but other companies are better positioned morally, structurally and reputationally. x.com x.com

Kevin Xu

Founder of AfterHour, CEO of Alpha

23 Jul

CLSK

CleanSpark has the most asymmetric upside among neoclouds as rising hyperscaler capex drives a neocloud summer. It has over 1.8 GW of power and just signed a 20-year, $6.6 billion triple-net lease with near-100% margins with an unnamed hyperscaler, rumored to be Meta. Contracted revenue could reach $11.6 billion, three times its market cap. Being earlier in its shift from bitcoin mining to AI data centers means a bigger potential re-rating. Leopold Aschenbrenner owns ~5%; short interest is 32%. … Show more

Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background

15 Oct

BTDR

Bitdeer's mining business may support meaningful value even if Bitcoin stays near $80,000, giving its speculative AI case a second engine. Its cash-contribution chart assumes 15,720 BTC mined annually at $61,051 cash cost per BTC, implying $298M at $80,000 Bitcoin, versus a roughly $2.2B valuation. Making its own SEALMINER rigs gives it more control over technology, costs and expansion. This remains a speculative buy with substantial downside risk. x.com x.com

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