Brad Thomas
Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research
Manufactured housing beats apartments and single-family rentals because new communities are rarely built, and that scarcity creates pricing power. Equity LifeStyle Properties has grown FFO 52% since its pre-pandemic baseline, supported by limited new supply, resilient demand and 5.7% expected manufactured-housing revenue growth, per data from @HoyaCapital. The same preference covers Sun Communities and UMH Properties. x.comÂ
Sherwin-Williams looks fully valued at 24x earnings on a normalized housing market, leaving returns dependent on the multiple. Store count grows only about 2% on a 4,800 base as penetration matures; with roughly 2% comps at a 30% incremental EBITDA margin, EBITDA grows about 6%. It is a great business with low disruption risk, but higher-beta housing stocks should deliver better returns if the cycle normalizes. x.com x.com x.comÂ
High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Welltower's risk/reward looks poor at almost 70 times forward earnings, even though senior-housing demand is rising while supply is not. x.comÂ
