Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
New Era's 20-year power agreement with a Vistra affiliate removes one of the biggest uncertainties at its Texas Critical Data Center, turning a development concept into an infrastructure platform. Phase 1 secures 200-207 MW of firm power from Vistra's adjacent Odessa plant from Q3 2027, and the deal sits directly with New Era, giving it control of a key input. Remaining questions are commercial: the tenant, lease terms, financing, ownership and how much economics New Era keeps. x.comÂ
A power purchase agreement now in hand and helium worth more than two years ago make New Era Energy & Digital very convex here. x.comÂ
New Era Energy & Digital is lining up power and permits for a 1.4GW AI campus, Texas Critical Data Centers, on 493 acres in Ector County. It signed a 20-year deal to buy up to 207MW from Vistra's Odessa gas plant, with power expected in Q3 2027, and Vistra gets a 5% non-voting stake in the part it powers. Construction permits are in hand, but the data center business is pre-revenue, making it the highest-risk name on the list. x.comÂ
New Era Energy & Digital's roughly $450M market cap makes little sense against about $1M of revenue. x.comÂ
IREN's long-term appeal rests on its standing as one of the best vertically integrated AI neoclouds. In the short term, the stock has not been this oversold since 2022. x.comÂ
New Era Energy & Digital is a high-conviction power-first infrastructure bet: its Texas Critical Data Center pairs ERCOT grid access with on-site gas generation to skip multi-year interconnection queues. The 438-acre Permian Basin campus targets 1 gigawatt. A $290M Macquarie financing funds the initial phases and retired costly SharonAI debt, while partners Stream Data Centers and Energy Dome cut execution risk. Next catalysts: building the first 200MW phase and signing an anchor tenant lease. … Show more
New Era Energy and Digital looks expensive against its sales. It trades at 28x sales while software companies usually get 20x; at 20x next year's sales, give or take 12%, fair value is $3.07 to $3.91, so the $5.03 price is 28% over the top of fair. This is a valuation-levels view only, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
IREN's $8 billion in cash against a valuation of just $10 billion points to unfathomable upside potential. Its shares are back below their $28 IPO price. x.comÂ
IREN's worsening fundamentals warrant patience despite its potential. Trailing free cash flow is -$2.45 billion, net income -$703 million and EPS -$1.64 even as revenue has grown; it needs a catalyst change and a positive trend in fundamentals. x.comÂ
Higher financing and build costs squeeze short-term returns for neoclouds. Iran-linked fuel inflation raises Fed hike risk; even better projects may borrow in the low 7s, while weaker ones risk dilution or delays. CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius, New Era Energy & Digital and WhiteFiber need higher contract dollars per MW to offset costs. Funded projects with strong customers and liquidity fare better, but almost none can fund the next phase without easier markets. No need to panic. x.com x.comÂ
IREN's uncommitted future capacity lets it seek bigger customer prepayments if credit tightens. CoreWeave signed many contracts when funding was easier and, per its management, deprioritized prepayments in early 2026, leaving more capex to fund externally. IREN is nearly certain to get the Rubin GPUs Sweetwater needs: it is about a year away and was designed with Nvidia as a flagship Rubin deployment. SW1's use of DSX pods is less clear, though months of joint design tilt the answer toward yes. … Show more