Brad Thomas
Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research
Millrose Properties' external management, related-party transactions and move away from land banking raise conflict-of-interest and principal-risk concerns. These warning signs led straight to SELL rather than HOLD, despite a 13%-plus dividend yield. The comparison with ARCP's earlier warning signs does not imply fraud or that Millrose is another ARCP. x.comÂ
Lennar's shift toward an NVR-style asset-light model could let free cash flow and buybacks compound value even without a rerating. Having spun out Millrose and moved much of its land off the balance sheet, Lennar needs far less capital to grow, so when housing normalizes similar economics could return on a much smaller base. The market still prices it like the old land-heavy builder. NVR created value by shrinking its share count, not via a premium multiple. Ted Weschler is buying heavily. x.comÂ
2CRSi's management is difficult to trust after a short report alleging fraud, even though the allegations are not confirmed. The report, as quoted by @TheBigBerbowski, claims 2CRSi built a fraudulent US structure to fabricate a growth story and that almost all its revenue likely comes from an undisclosed related-party scheme; @TheBigBerbowski finds it hard to believe for a family-run firm with heavy insider ownership. x.comÂ
Sidus Space belongs in the too-hard pile because its leadership cannot be trusted, however much cash it holds. Its CEO owns Craig Technical Consulting, a private firm with 94% of the voting power, raising conflict-of-interest and governance concerns. A post the author replies to argues that after a $100 million raise, its cash could earn $4 million a year and end dilution. x.com x.com x.comÂ
