Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
Circle remains a strong leader with a high Aion Index score and an intact structure, though another sector showing weeks of strength is a better use of capital for now. Circle ranked #6 of 1,116 stocks with a perfect 100 score, institutional put writing confirmed the thesis, and moving averages are curling up as price presses into resistance around $124–$138. x.com x.com
Circle can move much higher on passage of the Clarity Act. It made a decisive move last week and is consolidating around $100. x.com
Circle could still be a monster as the stablecoin narrative grows stronger by the day. A gap up that is not being completely faded may signal a change in character for the stock. x.com
Circle and Coinbase will look extremely cheap in hindsight from this crypto bear phase. They are generational companies, and it's only a matter of time before Wall Street wakes up to the megatrends of tokenization, stablecoins and perpetual futures. x.com
Circle is set up for a bounce toward $150 into the June 18 options expiry, because a $17.4 million wall of positive dealer exposure at the $150 strike should pull the price toward it. Spot near $113 first has to clear a small pocket of negative exposure at $114-115; once the $120 strike, with over $1 million of positive exposure, flips into support, dealer hedging should accelerate the move. x.com
Circle could be one of the cleanest 2-3x opportunities over the next 12-18 months as one of the few ways to own stablecoin infrastructure. The view that CLARITY failing is automatically bad for Circle is too one-dimensional. USDC circulation hit $73.3B in Q2, up 19%, on-chain volume rose 151%, and revenue and reserve income reached about $701M. The chart shows a higher low and consolidation but needs a clean break of descending resistance. Rates and competition from Tether and banks are risks. … Show more
Coinbase remains a buy-the-dip crypto holding, but now ranks behind Circle. It has lagged amid prolonged CLARITY Act uncertainty, faces revenue risk from the ongoing USDC custody renegotiation with Circle, and miners shifting to AI temper the trading-volume outlook. Circle is the preferred stablecoin exposure because stablecoins are the natural payment rail for AI agents. Basket weights stay unchanged, with a lean toward adding to Circle as the highest-conviction name. x.com
Jupiter looks primed for a repricing as a big beneficiary of rising onchain activity, with good risk/reward. JUP had its highest revenue day in seven months yesterday and looks on the cusp of exiting its downtrend. x.com