Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
Apple’s main assembly partner Hon Hai expects its expansive global manufacturing presence will help it fulfill growing demand for the US company’s marquee foldable device x.com
AlvaChallengesThe assembly partner's expectation that it can meet growing foldable demand strengthens the case for new-product growth to support Apple's premium valuation.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Apple is expected to spend $25 billion on flash storage this year for about the same amount it bought for $6 billion in 2025, according to estimates by TechInsights. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsTechInsights estimates Apple will spend $25 billion on flash storage this year for roughly the quantity that cost $6 billion in 2025, creating a substantial margin risk for the earnings supporting its valuation.
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
McElligott: ... AAPL: buyer of 70k Jan 380 calls for ~$5, $570 million of delta and $3.5 million of vega x.com
AlvaChallengesLarge purchases of January $380 Apple calls point to positioning for upside around earnings, increasing the risk of shorting into resistance.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
APPLE IPHONE SALES IN INDIA FALL UP TO 30% DURING FESTIVE SEASON; HIGHER PRICES, WEAKER PROMOTIONS HIT DEMAND x.com
AlvaSupportsFirst Squawk reports that higher prices and weaker promotions cut India's festive-season iPhone sales by up to 30%, adding demand risk to the earnings growth needed to justify Apple's multiple.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Sales in the United States and Japan fell 4% and 27% respectively from a year earlier with the new models more expensive than their predecessors. Counterpoint said US consumers saw few meaningful improvements in features or design over previous models to justify the price. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsCounterpoint's US and Japan sales declines point to price-sensitive demand in key markets, adding risk to the earnings growth needed to justify Apple's multiple.Reuters
Global News Agency
Global sales of Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series in the first three weeks after launch were 3.1% higher than the same period for the iPhone 17 Pro series, according to Counterpoint Research. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedCounterpoint's 3.1% global Pro-series sales gain suggests modest growth despite stronger demand in China and India, tempering expectations that regional strength will substantially lift Apple's earnings.First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
China Sales of iPhone 18 Pro Models Jump 29% as Supply Improves and Competitors Raise Prices, Counterpoint Finds x.com
AlvaChallengesCounterpoint's reported 29% jump in China sales as supply improves and competitors raise prices weakens the short thesis by pointing to stronger iPhone demand.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
That post-earnings rebound has since resolved into a bearish rising wedge structure, characterized by waning momentum candles including a Sept. 22 doji and a spinning top last Friday. I am looking for this stock to drop toward $325 before year-end, a 7% decline from current prices. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsBusch's technical analysis supports the bearish view, citing a rising wedge and waning momentum as reasons to expect a decline toward $325 by year-end.Reuters
Global News Agency
However, Apple was able to post a record closing high. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesApple's record closing high puts pressure on the thesis's resistance argument, though the report does not establish whether the stock crossed the specific resistance line.
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
In 2016, did this interview with Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, after a stock had plummeted from the split adjusted 31 to $23 in a fairly short period of time. ... I looked at stock, which was selling an incredibly low priced earnings multiple. ... The key here is that Apple is a high quality company, a best of breed company. ... Don't be afraid to pay up for best of breed stocks. They may have higher priced earnings multiples than the stocks of lower quality companies, but they're also much less likely to blow up in your face. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesCramer's willingness to pay a premium for Apple's business quality pushes against a short based on its multiple alone, though his Apple buying example was at a low multiple after a decline.
David Prince
US Equity/Options Fund Manager, Mentor at T3 Live
$AAPL Apple likely to post in line September revenue, $56B in iPhone sales, says UBS, Margin pressure and a five-year-high valuation support a Neutral rating and $296 price target, the firm says. x.com
AlvaSupportsUBS's five-year-high valuation assessment and margin concerns strengthen the thesis that Apple's price is hard to justify.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
But with Apple stock closing at a record high of $343.46 on Oct. 16, there might not be much upside left, according to Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah.Baruah downgraded Apple stock to Hold from Buy and reduced the firm's price target to $330 from $370. ... Baruah's new price target represented about 4% downside from the closing price on Monday.The downgrade was based on the firm's new iPhone data after Apple reduced its September and December iPhone unit shipments by 10%. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe downgrade and $330 target imply downside after Apple's run-up, supporting the short case; Loop Capital's reported shipment cuts also put future iPhone sales recovery in question.Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
Loop Capital downgraded its rating on Club name Apple to hold from buy and cut its price target to $330 from $370. On its last earnings call, Apple noted that supply constraints will impact iPhones. Now, Loop is worried the demand won't be there next year to compensate. cnbc.com
AlvaSupportsLoop Capital's concern that next year's iPhone demand may not offset supply constraints strengthens the short thesis's concern about Apple's valuation.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Loop Capital downgraded Apple to Hold from Buy, cutting its price target to $330 from $370. ... Supply chain checks suggest Apple will not recover 13 million iPhone shipments cut from its 2026 plans. ... Loop now expects 79 million iPhones in the December quarter versus Wall Street's 85 million. x.com
AlvaSupportsLoop Capital's lower shipment forecast adds earnings risk to a stock the thesis considers expensive at 36x next-twelve-months EPS.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Melius Research reiterated its Buy rating and $370 price target on Apple ($AAPL ), calling its rally to a $5 trillion valuation one of Wall Street's most disliked. ... Melius sees further upside from higher iPhone selling prices, Services growth and new products. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe reported Buy rating, $370 target and identified growth drivers challenge the thesis that Apple is unattractive at current levels and imply further upside.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Jefferies says demand for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is deteriorating, citing shorter delivery times and falling resale prices. ... In China, lead times have dropped to zero, while reported component order cuts reach 10–15%. Meanwhile, the foldable iPhone Duo has 90+ day wait times. x.com
AlvaSupportsWeaker Pro and Pro Max demand adds risk to the growth expectations behind Apple's high earnings multiple, while long foldable iPhone wait times point to demand for a new model.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
The firm warns that higher prices, fewer carrier promotions and longer upgrade cycles could weaken iPhone sales and services growth...Apple trades at approximately 40x projected 2027 earnings, versus its three-year average of 27x. x.com
AlvaSupportsKeyBanc's survey-based warning that pricing, promotions and longer upgrade cycles could weaken iPhone and services growth supports the thesis's concern about Apple's valuation; its cited 40x projected 2027 earnings multiple is also well above the three-year average of 27x.段永平
BBK Electronics founder and value investor
目前美国10年国债利息差不多是5.2%/年。50000/0.59812=83595.26. 也就是说今天付出5万亿买国债的话，10年后收回来的是8.36万亿。 以苹果目前的利润看，未来10年要赚到3.36万亿美金的话，每年利润的成长需要12.6%。 目前这个基数要保持这个成长不容易的。但如果你认为苹果的成长能够达到甚至超过很多，那苹果价钱其实也不贵，虽然已经涨了很多了。 xueqiu.com
AlvaMixedThe bond-return comparison sets a 12.6% annual profit-growth hurdle that he considers difficult for Apple to sustain, reinforcing valuation concerns; he says the price could still be reasonable if growth meets or exceeds that hurdle.段永平
BBK Electronics founder and value investor
目前这个价钱我在卖苹果的call。我很喜欢苹果，但目前这个价钱我很难买得下手。 xueqiu.com
AlvaSupportsSelling Apple calls at the current price and saying it is hard to buy at this level supports the concern that the shares are unattractive at their valuation.Anurag Rana
Senior Technology Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
Stock's at 36 times earnings. I mean, if you look at it compared to Microsoft, which is at 23 or Amazon at 20, I think a lot of what we are talking today, especially even with the demand, I mean, stock would have been up far more than just 1% if we would have any other environment. But I think the valuation takes care of a lot of the excitement there. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsApple’s 36x earnings multiple, versus 23x for Microsoft and 20x for Amazon, supports the concern that valuation is excessive; Rana says it constrained the stock’s reaction even to strong demand.