Gustavo Neffa
Partner & Director at Research for Traders, Economist & Professor
Space stocks, from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile to Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines and Redwire, are one of the trades of the moment, supported by a bullish market, the SpaceX IPO, government spending and investment across countries, the need for more technology and NASA's Artemis II mission. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
Voyager Technologies looks particularly interesting as a picks-and-shovels supplier to the space economy. At a $1.5B market cap, it builds propulsion, missile defense, spacecraft electronics, space intelligence and agentic AI, stations, lunar infrastructure and orbital computing; it partners with Palantir and Anduril. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Voyager could be like Apple, Microsoft and Intel in the 1980s: their value in two decades matters more than in two years. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's launch prospects depend on more bookings, while SpaceX can subsidize lower mobile prices to take share. Even a good launch partner matters little without those bookings: New Glenn must focus on Blue Origin and Amazon, and other providers are not scaling fast. These long-standing concerns are proving right; the competition is a matter of when, not if. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs are worth owning early because Alphabet has made them its top holdings, about 50% of its portfolio, per Fintel. That backing suggests investing in space is early in a good way, not too risky or too early. x.comÂ
Space stocks need AST SpaceMobile to launch its satellites, as the market trades the whole sector together regardless of each company's progress or headwinds. Activity should pick up again once space-stock option chains, which have largely died off, wake back up. @jonathan1328531 expects only delays and no catalyst over the next four weeks, with a slide to the low $50s or $40s. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ