US large-cap equities do not look like a bubble at current forward valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E is below both its five- and ten-year averages, while tech and momentum have suffered their worst five-month decline by far. x.com 

The S&P 500 is not in a bubble. At a forward P/E of 19, it sits just above its long-term average even as it presses new highs. x.com 

US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

US large-cap earnings are in a historic boom that undercuts the doomers: S&P 500 companies are beating EPS estimates by an aggregate 29.2%, the biggest beat ever, against a 7.0% five-year average. 86% of companies beat, and the blended net margin reached an all-time high of 16.9%. This is the largest investment boom in history. x.com 

Strong corporate earnings make weekend crash panic a contrarian buying opportunity in US large-cap equities. Most individual stocks have already gone through bear markets despite the S&P 500 nearing record highs; weekend social-media panic rarely leads to a genuine economic downturn and instead offers long-term investors an attractive entry point. x.com 

The S&P 500 looks vulnerable as Alphabet, Meta and Amazon earnings have failed to inspire confidence after the Anthropic S-1, and November typically brings tax-loss harvesting during a weak fiscal period. Momentum indicators are weakening; be careful. x.com  x.com 

US equities are in a remarkably strong earnings environment, with S&P 500 sales and earnings revisions for 2027 surging. Markups on equity investments don't explain it, since sales wouldn't reflect them and these are 2027 estimates. Breadth is also fairly strong, so stripping out the mega caps, as @EcoDogFanJM suggests, isn't warranted. x.com  x.com 

Improving breadth and GPUs massively outrunning depreciation costs put US-equity risk/reward heavily in bulls' favour. Some 59% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average; the Nasdaq 100 is positive over five trading days, and small caps bounced off their 200-day average. Buy gradually, as the selloff may not be completely over. x.com 

US large-cap equities face an AI-leadership valuation reset, not yet a recession selloff. AI capex is outrunning visible monetization, and semiconductors were the most crowded trade in Bank of America's July survey, so stocks can beat estimates and still fall. Brent near $100 and a 4.68% 10-year yield compress multiples, and the S&P 500 entered at about 20.1x forward earnings versus a 19.0x 10-year average. Big Tech earnings and the late-July Fed meeting will decide if a deeper reset follows. … Show more

A breadth thrust and fresh buying point to at least a multi-week rise in US indices, most probably a big rally for a few months after the midterms. LS Breadth is flipping bullish as the bear count falls; more stocks are starting uptrends and first consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing with strong breadth, and the S&P 500 looks ready to leave a massive base. The Nasdaq 100 could sell off at declining averages but should rise if broad selling does not return. x.com