Arrakis Global
Global Thematic Fund Manager
Venture Global's litigation overhang could clear because current LNG supply disruptions give Galp and Orlen strong incentives to settle and secure access in a tightening market. Five of seven arbitrations are done, with two wins, two settlements and one loss. Weakness is a buying opportunity. x.com x.com
Venture Global has a catalyst pathway significantly higher, as high LNG prices push its litigants toward a win-win settlement and a fragile peace leaves buyers needing to restock LNG. A post in the thread notes Qatar's LNG capacity took a massive hit that won't return quickly, making Venture Global the primary beneficiary, though it may sell off short term once Hormuz resolves; that would be the time to buy. x.com x.com
Oil supply disruption will take months to resolve even if the ceasefire holds, and Venture Global's fundamentals are stronger than ever. The stock fell 25% as a ceasefire became expected, after a 155% run this year, for valid reasons. Destroyed infrastructure and output halted for safety will take months to return to full production; per The Kobeissi Letter, attacks cut Saudi Arabia's oil capacity by 600,000 barrels a day. If the ceasefire or a lasting peace fails, Venture Global benefits. x.com
Venture Global seems to offer the most torque to LNG fundamentals, with significant damage to Gulf LNG infrastructure and an exceptional natural gas setup. Seasonal strength, LNG and data center demand and the Middle East energy crisis support gas from a $3 start, with commercials max long and one heat wave from $10 Henry Hub. Gas companies trade on the strip, so they gain from rising prices even when gas funds lose to contango. The project seems viable, with positive news flow. x.com x.com … Show more
Venture Global is a $12 stock without a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The whole point of the trade was a strait closure, and with that no longer the case, the trade no longer holds appeal. x.com x.com
Venture Global's Q2 was very solid, with locked-in contracts setting up cheaper financing. Revenue of $4.587 billion missed on timing, but EPS beat, the dividend rose to $0.04 and full-year EBITDA guidance rose $500-600 million. Contracted cargoes reached 91% for 2026 and 75% for 2027, struck at elevated TTF prices. That take-or-pay cash flow enabled $5.3 billion of refinancing saving $100 million a year, and with Plaquemines Phase I due in Q4, it expects better credit ratings next year. x.com … Show more
Venture Global's new 20-year LNG deal with China Gas shows US LNG quietly regaining demand while Middle East shipping routes stay disrupted. China Gas will import 0.5 MTPA a year from Venture Global; per Reuters, not a single LNG tanker passed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026. x.com
Venture Global is a better put-selling play than a stock to hold for now, since it will probably flush back toward $11 once the Iran conflict ends. Oil should come down, which would weigh on it, though very strong earnings should help it keep some relative strength. After hitting $13.9 on those earnings and an oil spike, it slipped to about $13.05, and $11.75 looks like a good entry again next week. The company itself remains well liked. x.com x.com
Venture Global is now quite a good story because it will have enough free cash flow to keep debt down while executing its long-term plan. Once locked-in underlying free cash flow tops $10 billion, risk falls by definition, and EBITDA could reach about $30 billion over the next three years, with far more production by 2029. Industry fees are rising with construction costs, so a $2.15 new-build baseline looks low. @ShaleTier7, whom the author answers, sees only about $2.2B a year contracted today. … Show more
Cheniere Energy rises the longer the Hormuz crisis lasts, because Iranian strikes crippled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, and QatarEnergy's CEO says two major trains will be offline for three to five years. Even if the Strait reopens, the market is structurally short 12.8 million tons a year, making Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion very valuable. If Hormuz stays shut six months, Wood Mackenzie sees JKM at $45-55/mmBtu, implying $500+ for Cheniere and $62+ for Venture Global. … Show more
Venture Global is the most direct bet on the world buying more American LNG. Its total LNG capacity in production, construction and development is about 100 million tonnes a year, more than Qatar's current operating capacity of about 77 million, and it was the top performer in the global oil and gas sector in March. x.com
Venture Global and NextDecade are reasonable 5-10 year investments from current levels because the US has strong motivation to export more LNG. They are certainly volatile, but companies that show excellence in execution always have a long-term edge. x.com
