Steven Fiorillo
Seeking Alpha Analyst, Basis Point Podcast Co-Host
CoreWeave's contracted projects should earn returns that justify financing risk. The market is too pessimistic about funding and collections. Trailing revenue through Q2 rose ~115% to $7.6B; $3.8B EBITDA is not adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow. Its ~$104B backlog helps lenders underwrite. Management expects typical five-year deals to repay asset debt, but must prove it. Capex needs outside funding; delays, weak collections, costly debt or excessive dilution would change the case. x.com
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com
Compute demand is too high for CoreWeave's decline to keep going. Its continued weakness alongside a rising Nebius looks overdone, making this a possible bounce point rather than a certain turnaround. x.com
Record Robinhood buying into CoreWeave's decline is a warning for bulls. CoreWeave is the most obvious short: LJKawa reports record five-day net purchases even as the stock fell. Only a below-market takeover by Nvidia looks capable of keeping CoreWeave out of bankruptcy; investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's building buyer pressure despite deteriorating sentiment points to an upside reversal. Every time this divergence has appeared in the stock, it has reversed to the upside. x.com
CoreWeave may have a downside backstop because Nvidia needs a competing neocloud ecosystem on its stack as hyperscalers and leading frontier labs shift spending toward custom ASICs. The personal bet is that Nvidia would step in if CoreWeave gets into trouble. Bernstein thinks intervention in a true downside would raise the floor, though not necessarily re-energize the stock. x.com
Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Jensen Huang's assessment of CoreWeave's improving strength and falling cost of capital supports the view it will be a monster one day. He says Nvidia does not need to backstop CoreWeave; his assessment carries more weight here than retail opinion. x.com
AI funding is easing as lower credit-insurance costs could reopen funding. CoreWeave CDS fell to ~1,040bp from above 1,100bp; Oracle says growth should fund itself from FY29. Google kept its $195–205B 2026 capex guide, expects more in 2027 and is renting third-party compute despite margin headwinds, supporting Nebius and CoreWeave pricing power. Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated to 48%, while Meta and Microsoft credit spreads eased. A bigger rally needs further credit easing. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's growing revenue and large backlog have not translated into positive fundamentals. Its trailing free cash flow has fallen to -$13.65 billion, net income to -$1.93 billion and EPS to -$3.66; the stock may still work out, but the uncertainty warrants caution. x.com
Compute rental can produce operating profits, validating the neocloud case for CoreWeave, Nebius and Applied Digital. SPCX's reported data point counters last week's CoreWeave-Anthropic hit piece on AI demand. x.com