Gustavo Neffa
Partner & Director at Research for Traders, Economist & Professor
Alphabet's AI spending is visibly turning into revenue, more than many other names can say today. Cloud is nearly a quarter of revenue, growing 103% at a 36% operating margin with a $561B backlog; total revenue rose 25%, operating income 30%, and margins are expanding. Free cash flow has been negative for two quarters, capex keeps climbing into 2027, and AI leaves search monetization uncertain. x.com
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.com
Alphabet's search monopoly faces a different competitive game as agent companies build their own search tools. Google Cloud grew 103%, but that was not enough to offset disappointing ads growth. Its only path is to accelerate AI training and keep spending on capex. Search will never be the same, and the risk-reward has changed, though Alphabet remains an optimistic prospect. x.com x.com x.com
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.com
Alphabet's lagging AI lab undermines the case for owning it for ANT exposure. The semiconductor-business framing does not make up for that lag, and hyperscalers are no longer needed for this exposure. x.com
Alphabet's AI buildout is hurting near-term operating profit as capex becomes depreciation. Operating income missed by about 6% and margin fell to about 32% from 34%, while much of the roughly 30% EPS miss came from gains and losses on investments, not Search, YouTube or Cloud. AI remains bullish, but the spending is not good for Google in the short term; the $195-205bn 2026 capex range is unchanged and 2027 capex is expected to rise significantly. Alphabet remains Overweight with a $425 target. … Show more
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Alphabet's Q3 search miss strengthens the concern that AI is not great for search. FinancialJuice reports Search & Other revenue of $63.35bn versus $64.85bn expected and capex of $51.36bn versus $55.78bn expected. Anthropic's third quarter also looks less than excellent on this read-through. x.com
Alphabet's fast-growing Cloud business could offset pressure on Search as AI agents bypass ads and links. Cloud is already half Search's size, grew 103% versus Search's 12%, and is on track to overtake it; that makes the sell-off a great opportunity. Alphabet also owns SpaceX shares worth about $80 billion. x.com