Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Kopin is the better side of its venture with FABC, held for its defense angle rather than AI. FABC is too tiny to plausibly finance the venture, and if the technology were as big as claimed, a large company threatened by it would likely have bought it out, since both market caps are a rounding error for such players. The FABC tie-up is the one thing about Kopin that raises questions. x.comÂ
Kopin is no longer cheap after about 10% dilution in a short period: its share count rose to 186.9M per its 10-Q, putting market cap near $990M at about $5.30. Revenue guidance of $52-60M, called conservative, implies 16.5-19x forward sales against a preferred 12x for fast growers, and half this quarter's revenue came from one-time grants and agreements, not ongoing business. Even a $70M beat counting all of that is 14x. The market can still price it anywhere. x.comÂ
Kopin, with partner SBLX, may have cracked MicroLED-based optical interconnects, the holy grail for interconnects, which are the main bottleneck in AI data centers. No other public company has announced one, and Kopin builds on MicroLED products it developed for the US Army. Copper-interconnect leader Credo is worth about $20 billion and just paid $750M for DustPhotonics, while Kopin is about $500M and SBLX under $50M in what is described as a $100B industry. x.com x.comÂ
Kopin's losses are shrinking while government grants fund its R&D, and four multi-customer platforms each have dated catalysts within six months. Q2 revenue rose 51% to $12.7 million, though nearly all growth was program money, not product; product costs fell to 86% of sales from 94%. Catalysts include Gauntlet II awards and volume Sentinel FPV orders in late Q4, a Q4 profit target and MicroLED samples next year. Slipping awards, a missed ramp, cash burn or no Q4 profit would change the view. … Show more
Kopin is a name to watch from the sidelines because dilution risk outweighs its promising technology for now. Q2 revenue rose 51% to $12.7M, but core product revenue was flat at $7.6M; the gain came from $5.1M in grants and partner-funded R&D. Excluding investment gains and a tax benefit, it runs about a $3.5M operating loss, with $24.3M usable cash and $26M tied up in the BlueRadios appeal bond. Positive free cash flow is targeted for Q4 2026; any ramp snag raises the odds of a share sale. … Show more
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.comÂ
