Lemonade looks expensive once valued as what it is, an insurance company. Replying to @javierluraschi's post on the stock, any price above 1x revenue is expensive for an insurer. x.comÂ
Gali
Startup Investor at HyperGuap, Technology Investing, HyperChange
Lemonade is overvalued because AI is not a material or unique value driver in insurance, since every insurer uses AI and keeps improving it. It should trade at an insurance valuation of about 1.5-2.5x book value, roughly $30. An insurance CEO also called the company a joke and way overvalued. x.com x.comÂ
Lemonade looks good but not good enough after a lofty price and high expectations into earnings, so it needs to get cheaper before it is worth buying. In-force premium grew 32% and revenue 79% as it approaches positive cash flow by the end of 2026; the low $40s or $30s would be the level to buy more. x.com x.comÂ
Lemonade's share-price drop after a great second quarter is a wild overreaction. Per its Q2 2026 results, in-force premium rose 32.4% to $1.43 billion and revenue grew 79% to $294 million, the 11th straight quarter of accelerating growth, with over 3.3 million customers. x.com x.comÂ
Root looks cheap at about 7x earnings while buying back shares, with proven fully loaded economics. Even after $25.3 million of sales and marketing and $32 million of partner acquisition costs, it earned $25 million of GAAP profit with a 92.1% combined ratio. Lemonade grows much faster and may have more upside if retention and cross-sell deliver, but its case rests on modeled lifetime value and its shareholders keep getting diluted. Root's premium volume is roughly flat to down. x.com x.com … Show more
Lemonade is reducing transparency on a key indicator of whether it can scale efficiently. Earnings reports once showed in-force premium versus opex, then switched to premium versus employee count, presumably as opex rose, and now show premium alone. Investors are tiring of waiting for EBITDA profitability, and the missing comparative metrics give less insight into how Lemonade gets there. The stock had run ahead into earnings, so a reset was due without a blowout. x.com x.comÂ
Lemonade is light years ahead of competitors in agentic insurance as policies shift from set-and-forget to hundreds of micro-interactions each year. It is the first company to truly enter this model while incumbents still work on AI premium-pricing models. Pet insurance involves frequent small claims, and car telematics keeps updating driving-based prices and safety assessments. x.comÂ
Lemonade's profitability problem outweighs its impressive growth. Revenue rose from $23 million in 2018 to $975 million over the last 12 months, a 65% CAGR, and members nearly tripled since 2021. Yet the capital-light insurtech still guides to negative 2026 EBITDA, below its initial expectations, and after 11 years is not close to positive EBITDA. Management has been less transparent about cutting costs. Solving profitability could make it a home run; Root's management is preferred. x.com x.com … Show more
Lemonade's cash burn makes its promotion by paid influencers on X suspect. Its shares are down 38% year to date, alongside other heavily promoted stocks. x.comÂ
Lemonade is a monster stock in the making after a massive quarter. Per co-founder @shai_wininger, in-force premium grew 32% to $1.33 billion, the 10th straight quarter of acceleration, revenue rose 71% to $258M and gross profit 159% to $100M, with $17M of adjusted free cash flow. Pet passed $500M of premium, car grew 60% with its loss ratio down 14 points to 74%, and Lemonade raised 2026 guidance, targeting positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4. x.comÂ
Ethos is getting bubbly, and at $40 it is time to exit. Its ceiling is also structurally lower than Lemonade's: Ethos underwrites with its app but never holds the policy, so it earns mostly upfront fees from partner insurers rather than monthly premiums on policies it carries. That keeps it out of the top four fintech names. x.com x.comÂ