AppLovin looks like an attractive ad-tech opportunity around $280 because its advertising platform has opened to all businesses, offering access to over 1 billion daily users, and management expects Q3 revenue above $2B. Shares are down nearly 62% from $733 despite Q2 revenue growth of 53% year over year. x.com 

AppLovin's selloff prices in a significant slowdown while the underlying numbers remain incredible, making the risk/reward interesting. Q2 revenue rose 53% to $1.92B at an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin, and Q3 guidance implies 46-48% growth. It generates billions in free cash flow on a ~$100B market cap, has only ~$700M of net debt and buys back shares. Expanding into e-commerce could greatly enlarge its market; slower AI model gains and competition from Meta and Alphabet are the risks. x.com 

AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com 

AppLovin looks cheap for its growth, at just 15 times forward earnings after 61% growth over the last twelve months. More marketers have lately mentioned AppLovin as a place they want to spend, though the stock is a controversial pick. x.com 

AppLovin's e-commerce push looks real, making the beaten-down stock an incredible entry. A member of AppLovin's e-commerce team who works with its largest advertisers said results for non-gaming businesses are absolutely cranking and budgets are rising across many commerce clients; that is one person's word. Per @m0xt_, Northbeam data show AXON's share of tracked ad budgets jumped to 2.34% in the week of Sep 20-27, from about 1.7-1.9% through August and September. x.com 

AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com  x.com 

The market is badly wrong about AppLovin, which is down almost 60% over the past year while the business keeps growing. Revenue is up 52.8% year over year, the stock trades at 16x forward earnings, and the company is expanding beyond mobile gaming ads. x.com 

AppLovin looks cheap at current levels unless something catastrophic is happening beneath the surface. Per @stock_analysisx, its EPS rose from $0.09 to $13 in four years while the stock is down 60% from its high at 15x forward earnings. Still, reaching its above-30% annual growth target through Axon recommendation-engine improvements alone seems unlikely. x.com  x.com 

AppLovin has zero moat in AI advertising, where 50 companies do the same thing and AI can do it without any of them. It is value-trap garbage, just another The Trade Desk, and all of these companies could be bankrupt someday. x.com  x.com 

AppLovin's growth, liquidity, free cash flow and profitability make it the clear winner among beaten-down stocks with attractive fundamentals. Research Desk's chart shows EPS generally beating estimates, though the latest revenue missed. x.com