Steven Fiorillo
Seeking Alpha Analyst, Basis Point Podcast Co-Host
Micron's valuation looks ridiculous given the street's eight-year EPS estimates, even with a projected 2028 earnings peak and subsequent decline. At under $900, it trades at 5.09 times this year's expected EPS of $176.55. If consensus plays out, 2027-34 EPS would total $921.56, more than the share price; if analysts are wrong about when EPS peaks, Micron would look even cheaper. x.com
Micron's cash-flow firepower is underappreciated, and the market will be forced to rerate it higher. Q4 revenue hit $54.2B, up 379% year over year; HBM grew faster than the company, and most 2027 HBM supply is already sold at significantly higher prices. Fiscal 2026 brought $52.98B of free cash flow. If analyst forecasts reaching $530B of 2030 revenue play out, cumulative FCF could near $570B against a $1.24T market cap. At 6.6x 2027 earnings, memory is part of the AI capital stack. x.com
Micron's FY2028 earnings could substantially exceed the displayed $206.89 normalized EPS estimate, leaving the shares at about 3x FY2028 EPS. A beat of at least 30-50% depends on demand, pricing, margins and buybacks. x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com
Micron is more attractive than Tesla because its earnings and growth-adjusted valuations are dramatically cheaper. At $897, Micron trades at 5 times analysts' next-year earnings versus Tesla at 186 times near $360; PEG ratios are 0.07 and nearly 10. Micron just printed about $74 in trailing EPS after a surge that caught most of the Street flat-footed, while Tesla's roughly $1.08 has been shrinking. At these prices, the preference is Micron. x.com
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com
Demand for Micron's products is through the roof, making its revenue surge only the beginning as it heads into 2027. The attached eight-quarter chart puts Q4 FY26 revenue at $54.2 billion, and Micron's gross margin is cited at 86%. A $100 billion revenue quarter could arrive in the not-so-distant future; the stock is a good bet here. x.com
Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
