Lin
Engineer & Venture Investor, The Fullstack Investor
Nvidia could gain up to $400B of revenue next year from SpaceX alone, as Elon Musk plans to scale AI compute from 2 GW to nearly 10 GW by end-2027 using only Nvidia GPUs. Jensen Huang says each gigawatt of data center is worth about $50B in Nvidia revenue, against roughly $400B of total revenue expected this year. Nvidia and its ecosystem remain miles ahead, from Arm and TSMC to memory, packaging, equipment, networking, server and power suppliers. x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia's equity-investment book makes earnings vulnerable to an AI valuation downturn even if GPU sales hold up. Private and public stakes totaled about $99bn, or 31% of assets, in July; gains were $15.9bn in April and $7.8bn in July. Private holdings are marked on observable transactions or impairments, so losses could arrive in lumps. Nvidia generated about $127bn of free cash flow over four quarters, and the filing does not split private stakes by sector. x.com x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Nvidia's 0.39 PEG suggests its valuation is low relative to growth. Its 26.56x P/E and 17.55x forward P/E are below their respective ten-year medians of 50.36x and 26.5x. x.com
NVIDIA looks close to the top of an AI bubble, with a two-year megaphone pattern signaling exhaustion of growth. Such expanding, volatile patterns historically don't end painlessly. Its roughly 22x valuation on a $4.8 trillion market cap and $216 billion profit is approaching Cisco's roughly 30x in 2000. Nvidia just raised $25 billion in debt, drawing $85 billion of orders. x.com x.com
Nvidia is now a value stock, available at under 20x forward earnings, as @mattcerminaro notes. x.com
NVIDIA looks cheap at perhaps 13–14x FY28 EPS based on its own guidance. On its call it guided to about 70% revenue growth in FY28, ending January 2028, versus consensus of only 44.5%. x.com x.com
Nvidia's trough P/E is a trap rather than a bargain. Responding to @WaterworldCapi1 noting Nvidia at a 10-year-low P/E, a cheap multiple on a cyclical name is exactly when the stock gets hammered. x.com
Nvidia in 2026 is not Cisco in 2000: it grows over 100% a year at far lower multiples, making it still an amazing buy and likely the first $10T company, possibly by 2028. Cisco peaked near 200x earnings, 30x sales and 176x FCF on 55% growth; Nvidia trades at 30x, 18x and 45x with 75% gross margins. Forward, it is about 20x earnings and 22x FCF, near all-time lows, and supply constraints and contracts let it guide a full year ahead for the first time. A $6T cap would not mean overvalued. x.com … Show more