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Fundamental Equity Portfolio Manager, Outperforming the Market Newsletter
Zhipu AI's stock is unattractive because the Chinese AI model space is simply too competitive to be an appealing investment. Its company vision still deserves respect, and its current valuation is not a bubble. x.comÂ
Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas) is already valued at nutty levels. At HK$2,094, buying it on $1B of ARR is like paying $6T for Anthropic on $50B of ARR. Its GLM models are genuinely impressive, but that valuation comes before factoring in the headaches of owning Chinese stocks. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares did not implode when the first lockup period ended, which supports staying bullish and ignoring the media telling investors what to do, though the call could still prove wrong. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras still needs to come down further before it is worth buying. IPO stocks often rise sharply at first, then fall, and can take a long time to return to their original value, so entering at an expensive price right after the IPO is unappealing. The view is not entirely negative on Cerebras, and it should not be called a direct Nvidia rival. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares will probably drop into the $60s after the lockup expires, so now is not the right time to get involved. x.com x.comÂ
Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.comÂ
US large-cap stocks could decline in early 2027 as lockups expire on the mega IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, which may mark the AI cycle's top as insiders monetize. With SpaceX floating only 4.5% at IPO, post-lockup liquidity for the AI wave is about 3x the whole dot-com bubble's, or 50% higher adjusted for inflation. Absorbing it would require selling other S&P 500 stocks, with peak demand 3-6 months after the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. It may prove a leg down rather than the final peak. … Show more
SpaceX shares face short-term selling pressure and volatility as the post-IPO lock-up ends for about 912 million shares, which could more than double the publicly tradable supply. Meaningful selling is likely from early investors, some holding over a decade and with venture funds needing to return capital, while employees may cash out a portion. A complete collapse is unlikely unless insiders sell far more than expected; better to stay away until the market absorbs the supply. x.comÂ
Cerebras fits the pattern of many recent IPOs: a low float plus retail FOMO produces a high valuation that then bleeds down over months. As @aleabitoreddit puts it, it is a good company but hard to like at a ~$90-100 billion market cap, and float dynamics could keep it at absurd valuations for a short time before things correct. x.comÂ
SpaceX's price is propped up by a tiny float that will flood with sellers through December 2026. Only about 5% of shares trade now; up to 20% of locked shares unlock around August 11, then 7% every 15 days through October, 28% around November 9 and the rest by December 9, about 20x today's float. Early investors will likely sell ahead of each other, dumping on retail, though the company itself should be extremely valuable long term. Musk's lockup runs to mid-2027. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more