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IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

28 Oct, 16:21Latest

SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com

SPCX

10 Aug, 23:27

At today's valuation, SpaceX buyers pay for AI hardware and Starlink and get launch for free, and the August 6 unlock of about 140% of the float, the worst one, has cleared. Compute revenue hit $2.6B, up 247%, and turned EBITDA-positive, with about 10GW targeted by end-2027, supporting roughly $1.2T of value. Starlink revenue rose 66% to $4.3B on a record 1.7M net adds, worth about $500B. That leaves launch, the moat, as a free option. The risk is whether investors believe the AI ramp. x.com x.com

SPCX

Crossroads

Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Jo Bhakdi

Investor, Tesla & AI Stocks

25 Oct

CRWV

SPCX

Slower neoclouds such as CoreWeave face an uphill battle against SpaceX's faster data-center buildout. Demand may be effectively unlimited, but falling a year or two behind creates a $5-10B cash cost disadvantage they may not survive. Some could still pull off a miracle; SpaceX itself competes as a neocloud and has no reason to buy firms that cannot build data centers. x.com x.com x.com

Stone Fox Capital

Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital

24 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's 10 GW compute target demands enormous capital spending. It alone would have to reach $500B in capex to meet the goal. x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

20 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Accelerating compute demand could drive a V-shaped recovery in beaten-down neocloud stocks if SpaceX earnings confirm it. Nebius, CoreWeave and IREN are on watch. GPU spot rates rose rapidly: H100s $3.34/hour, H200s $4.93, B200s $8.13. Nebius had $582M Q2 revenue, nearly 6x YoY; CoreWeave a $129B backlog early in Q3; SpaceX 1.4 GW compute capacity last quarter, up from 400 MW a year ago. Whether SpaceX converts demand into meaningful revenue and EPS beats remains the key question. x.com

Mark Harvey

Bitcoin & Equity Investor, Engineering/Finance Background, MSTR/TSLA/SPCX

23 Oct

SpaceX's near-monopoly in global satellite internet, built on reusable rockets, should generate enormous cash flow to partly fund its AI compute buildout. Those cash flows should strengthen its credit profile and let it finance the rest more cheaply than pure-play neoclouds CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which SpaceX makes obsolete. Grok ensures deployed compute earns revenue if customers back out. There is no reason to own a pure-play neocloud when SpaceX is available. x.com x.com

Late Stage Capitalism

Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience

21 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's 13-20GW 2027 plan would crash compute rates if achieved, and Nvidia cannot supply the chips. Even 10GW gross/8GW IT needs 350,000 GPUs and $30-32B monthly; 20GW costs $400-500B against $750B in global AI spend. A 28% share release tomorrow and Musk's cross-company overpayments keep SpaceX hands-off. Yet 400MW+ monthly deployment could yield $225B revenue and $100B profit in 2027, worth $2T at 20x; Elon firms rarely trade at only 20x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Space Investor

Space-Sector Investor

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's compute outlook improves as Anthropic commits more spending and institutions fund its GPU expansion. Anthropic's S-1 lists up to $120.5B in SpaceXAI compute purchases through 2029; Pimco bought $4B of the roughly $40B Apollo-led GPU debt package. The GPU lease is expected to close before year-end and entails about $40B in principal payments, not new shares. Elon Musk says Starlink Mobile will take 2-3 years to build out, versus the 4-6 years estimated by Verizon's CEO. x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

20 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

Scarce compute could ease financing for neoclouds such as Nebius and CoreWeave by shortening capex payback. Elon Musk says SpaceX's new deployments pay back in less than a year at current pricing; that bodes well for other neoclouds facing financing concerns if they achieve similar economics. GPU rental rates keep hitting highs, contrary to Gartner's claim of oversupply. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Roger

Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor

27 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's GPU lease disclosures leave the productive capacity behind its $40 billion financing unclear. The company has disclosed Vera Rubin lease terms and dollar amounts, with first deliveries expected in the first half of 2027, but not the gigawatts or GPU count; successive lease and debt announcements do not resolve how much compute will actually be delivered. x.com x.com x.com

Cern Basher

Co-Founder, President & CIO of Brilliant Advice

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's AI compute buildout has more evidence of demand from big customers. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing says it agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI compute through 2029, with payments of about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026. Either side may cancel on 90 days' notice after initial terms end in January and March 2027. x.com x.com

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