Rand Group
Crypto Trader & Investor, Building RR2 Capital, Early-Stage Investing
ASML is the gatekeeper of the semiconductor industry as the only company that makes the machines that make the most advanced chips, so every AI boom, chip war and fab expansion becomes an ASML order. Nvidia, a $5 trillion company, could not exist without it, and the dependency runs only one way. Its 38.8B backlog booked into 2027, highlighted by @kunkelcapital, already holds the receipts for the next two years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Requests for ASML lithography-tool slots as far out as 2030 signal years of locked-in downstream AI infrastructure spending plans. ASML's machines come before the chips, making those customer requests a clearer early demand signal than chip headlines. x.com
ASML remains essential even if AI capital spending slows: advanced chips cannot be made without its lithography equipment, for which there is no alternative. It belongs among the infrastructure businesses that can work through a pause in the cycle. x.com
ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com x.com … Show more
ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.com
ASML's growth path loses momentum on news that TSMC can make some chips without ASML's machines. x.com
ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com x.com
Rising AI equipment demand could sustain the buildout behind Micron, Nebius, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Applied Optoelectronics. ASML says customers are raising short- and medium-term forecasts, some are interested in orders for 2029 or 2030, and its currently planned 2027-28 supply may not fully meet demand. The dip in these AI stocks might be a buying opportunity. x.com
ASML has yet to fall despite losing its biggest customer, TSMC, until 2029, a customer responsible for 70% of its revenue. That disconnect reflects the current state of the chip bubble. x.com
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.com
