Banana3
Professional Trader/Investor, Real Estate Developer, 25 Years’ Experience
Palantir has bottomed because its multiple has been cut almost in half while it grows 80-100% a year, the condition for growing into its valuation. Above $200 and at 250x forward earnings, the stock was too rich and the multiple needed to halve. Both have now happened, and the latest earnings strengthen the view that the low is in. x.com
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.com
Palantir is approaching fair value after falling to nearly half its October price, which had been far too high, and will likely drop into an $80-120 buy zone. The stock will always carry some premium, so there is no need to wait for the exact bottom; it should eventually return to $200. x.com
Palantir's valuation leaves it vulnerable to a nasty reversal. Its attached metrics show 178.8x trailing earnings, 80.1x trailing sales on an enterprise-value basis, and 110x next-twelve-month earnings. x.com
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.com
Palantir was undervalued going into Q2, and its results prove it. Revenue rose 93% YoY and EBITDA 155%, and with estimates rising it entered earnings at under 45x NTM EBITDA, perhaps closer to 40x, too cheap for 90-95% revenue growth at 62% EBITDA margins. The sell side's 45-50% revenue CAGR for 2027-2030 looks achievable or even conservative, implying $25-30B of 2030 EBITDA or free cash flow before any acquisitions. x.com
Palantir looks stretched again, back at about 69 times sales. Michael Burry added March 2027 Palantir puts after covering half his shorts near $107. A further run to $187-$198 would be the better level to lean bearish, and with software stocks running hot for two weeks, the whole trade may top out for a breather. x.com x.com
Palantir already shows companies returns on AI as they shift from testing it to demanding results. JPMorgan's $262 target is about 32% above the current price; the multi-model signal is Long, with three of four models agreeing ahead of Monday's earnings. x.com
Palantir has grown into its multiple and could look cheap within a year, as earnings rise faster than the Street moves estimates. At about $155, or 69x 2027 consensus EPS of $2.29, it looks expensive, but it trades at a lower next-year P/E than Datadog and Snowflake while growing about twice as fast, and its P/E per point of growth is under half MongoDB's. Revenue rose from $1.41B to $1.63B to $1.94B over three quarters, with Q3 guided near $2.16B, and EPS keeps rising about 8 cents a quarter. … Show more
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.com
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.com
