FestivusCap
Public Equities Commentary
Stryker's soft summer reflects a deteriorating company, not macro weakness. No other device company talked about a soft summer, yet the market reads it as a macro issue and people want to buy Stryker, using it to express a preconceived thematic trade. The macro is fine; Stryker is the problem. x.com x.comÂ
Stryker's 10% post-earnings drop is unwarranted because the numbers were fine. Organic revenue was in line, margins beat, full-year guidance was reiterated and MedSurg is tracking to the high end of its range. Keeping guidance after a cyber incident, despite end-market callouts from Intuitive Surgical and HCA, should be positive. The stock is at its lowest multiple since 2015, derated from over 30x to 18x, with Mako and neurovascular strong; a collapse in hospital buying is the risk. x.com x.comÂ
Stryker's rare double miss looks like quarterly noise, since full-year 2026 guidance is unchanged. Healthcare stocks are widely hated after five years of broken charts from the COVID boom-bust, but fundamentals say otherwise. They are the ultimate safety stocks, and the time to buy them is when no one wants them. x.comÂ
Stryker is a slow-and-steady compounder, leading knee and hip replacement as an aging population spends more on care. People over 65 spend 3x more on healthcare, and baby boomers are turning 65. A three-year FDA head start let Stryker install over 3,000 Mako robots, past 2 million procedures, locking in surgeons and hospitals. Each system drives recurring implant, disposable, software and service revenue AI cannot code away. Sales grow mid-teens, 4% above peers. x.comÂ
