Retail Tanjiro
Investor & Swing Trader, Technical Analysis
US government backing and China's roughly 90% control of the global heavy-metals and rare-earth market make USA Rare Earth an easy hold. Its projected 2030 revenue is $2.6 billion, and most stocks in the basket trade at 20-30x sales. It is especially an easy hold near the log 0.786 Fibonacci level, with weekly RSI at 30. x.com
USA Rare Earth is worth buying again because the government took a roughly $300 million stake at $17.17 per share. x.com x.com
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.com
USA Rare Earth could accelerate because a potential 8-16% US government stake would back domestic heavy rare earth and magnet production, essential to fighter jets, missiles, radar and other advanced weapons. China controls 85-90% of that supply chain, making it national-security critical with macro and geopolitical tailwinds. It is still pre-revenue, more a VC-style play: defense contracts are the bull case, and failure to execute is the risk. The upside over the next few years is great. x.com … Show more
US rare-earth and critical-mineral stocks could benefit from up to $1.6B of US investment in a domestic supply chain, even as heavy rare-earth stocks crash. USA Rare Earth is building a US mine-to-magnet chain including dysprosium and terbium; MP Materials is expanding into heavy rare-earth separation, alloys and magnets; Energy Fuels is expanding US separation; Critical Metals is developing Greenland's Tanbreez; NioCorp and American Resources are building US critical-mineral projects. x.com … Show more
USA Rare Earth is a higher-risk, high-reward bet on mineral security as a form of national security, suited only to a small portion of a portfolio. x.com
USA Rare Earth is a unique long-term situation, much like MP Materials a few years ago, with its edge in the Trump administration's financial backing and the Round Top project in Texas. MP's edge was buying Molycorp's roughly $1.9B of sunk Mountain Pass costs for $20.5M. Round Top is a surface-exposed rhyolite dome highly enriched in heavy rare earths, yttrium, lithium and beryllium, creating a massive, accessible and unusually high-grade source, unlike traditional ionic clay deposits. x.com
USA Rare Earth's breakout has fundamental backing because a domestic rare earth supply chain is a White House priority and China export uncertainty keeps a bid under US names. It ended Q1 with $1.75 billion of cash after a $1.5 billion PIPE, commissioned Phase 1a magnet production at Stillwater, won $19.3 million of DOE funding and a $14.18 million Texas grant, and signed the Serra Verde acquisition. Analysts average a $36.57 target, up to $45, though timing is awkward after the recent run. … Show more
USA Rare Earth is attractive again now that it trades below the government's $17.17 entry price. More shares are wanted, but with patience for now. x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth is the highest-upside way to play Trump's push for magnets. It targets heavy rare earths through a full-stack US supply chain, is a strategic government asset and reduces reliance on China. If it actually builds a domestic heavy rare earth and magnet supply chain, the upside could be insane. x.com
