Beaten-down names like Spotify and ServiceNow are junk not worth touching. Their results are inconsistent and their balance sheets are terrible, and junk tends to stay junk, unlike mega caps such as Nvidia and Microsoft. x.comÂ
Cole
Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal
Spotify has little investment appeal because it competes against Apple Music, Amazon Music and YouTube Music. Putting an entire investment into a pure music-streaming company is hard to justify. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's growth and deteriorating margins do not justify its valuation. It grew 3% quarter over quarter against a 107x trailing GAAP P/E, and its margins continue to deteriorate. It remains a great company, but is mostly saturated relative to that valuation. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Investors dislike ServiceNow scaling up forward-deployed engineers, even though it is directionally right for customer outcomes. That aversion is the main reason the SaaS selloff is back. x.comÂ
Spotify fell 12% despite beating on EPS and users because the market is pricing slowing growth against a rich multiple. Guidance disappointed, and at 60x+ earnings, in-line revenue of $5.3B is a miss in disguise. MAU growth is slowing, so 761 million users looks like a forming ceiling rather than a path to 1 billion, and the margin expansion and media-company stories need to show up in the numbers. The open question is at what price it becomes interesting again. x.com x.comÂ
Cost fears and CRPO misunderstandings caused ServiceNow's selloff. The stock is definitely undervalued; the market's reaction is ridiculous. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's guidance growth is set to fall by another fifth next quarter, a poor trajectory rather than a buying opportunity after earnings. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more
Spotify looks expensive on valuation levels alone, at $497.51 against an estimated fair range of $268.30 to $341.48, about 46% above the top of fair value. It trades at 28.4x forward earnings, a 1.44 PEG and 4.8x EV/sales. The read uses reported earnings and revenue estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ