AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.com 

Microsoft's Azure has lost its OpenAI-model access edge because those models are also on AWS and are coming to Google Cloud. Azure now has to win on price and service rather than access. x.com 

Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com  x.com 

Apple shows significant relative strength because it did not spend billions on AI capex, unlike Meta, Microsoft and Oracle, which are in the toilet after spending so much. Apple also has a new product cycle launching across AirPods, iPad and a touch MacBook. x.com 

Microsoft is getting outworked as an infrastructure company. Its 40% Azure growth came entirely from OpenAI, which now runs on other clouds, while Anthropic runs on Google and Amazon. Amazon has Trainium, which Anthropic uses heavily, and Google has TPUs; Microsoft has no equivalent. Agentic software making Office less useful is a smaller part of the bear case. x.com 

Microsoft's hold on enterprise software and the cloud running AI makes it one of tech's best positions to own. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 19% on Azure and the AI stack, while operating income rose 21% and net income 32%. Grade: A. x.com 

Microsoft's OpenAI moat has become a commodity because OpenAI's cloud license is now non-exclusive, and Amazon can now compete for OpenAI workloads directly. Azure exclusivity was the entire strategic value of the relationship. OpenAI's Sam Altman says Microsoft stays its primary cloud partner, but OpenAI can now offer its products across all clouds, and AWS CEO Andy Jassy says OpenAI's models will be on Bedrock within weeks. The real trade is to sell the Azure premium and buy AWS. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Apple is a sell here because buybacks are replacing innovation while its share price is dangerously extended. It is not spending on AI, in cloud services, making robots or pursuing global WiFi; its VR, Siri chatbot and iCar efforts have failed. Its flip phone follows Samsung's, and AirPods have poor battery life and microphones. The share price has held up, but only for now. x.com 

Microsoft's AI spending is producing faster growth with better economics: Azure accelerated to 48% on a $100B+ base while capex was $39.4B, below expectations. Management then guided Azure to 49-50% and said demand still exceeds supply, ending the debate over whether AI investment is paying off. Overweight, $625 target. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Apple faces a disruption it will never come back from, coming from whichever company makes open-source AI possible on device. Apple's latest launch, per @StockMKTNewz, was the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, updated AirPods and Apple Watch, and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo. x.com