Bloom Energy's valuation is now a problem because the market no longer tolerates crazy valuations in AI, so further buying will need a justifiable price. Hunterbrook's short report on Bloom adds to the scrutiny. x.comÂ
YeahDave
Investor, Space/Energy/Defense/AI/Quantum
Bloom Energy's demand may not become revenue when customers struggle to secure financing. Capital is difficult to raise in this climate; a reading of management's AI discussion also points to permitting, local opposition and customer credit as obstacles despite robust demand. Even after good earnings, the shares did not look very bullish. x.com x.comÂ
Bloom Energy's strengths are largely priced in, leaving a less attractive risk-reward at current prices. Its positioning, backlog and bottleneck role in the AI buildout are compelling, and the stock can keep going higher. But paying too much can lead to underperformance even when the business thesis is right, and the higher expectations climb, the less room there is for anything to go wrong. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy has a better investor-confidence setup than neoclouds for exposure to AI's compute and energy needs. If compute remains insufficient to power AI growth, Bloom is likely to do better than a neocloud basket. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy has become a meme stock, worth around $150 with the rest of its price just mania. It is off the watchlist in favor of two names that are getting cheaper and are not AI bubble stocks. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy is a great business priced as if it can't miss, at roughly 22x sales, so it now has to grow into its multiple. Per @StockSavvyShay, product revenue more than tripled in a year as Bloom's fuel cells deploy onsite in months versus nearly five years for grid interconnection. But crushing earnings and growing into a multiple are two very different problems, and the stock had already nearly halved from its June high going into the report. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy alone can solve the electricity shortage for now. That warrants a high P/E, and its growth should be even stronger than the market expects. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy is probably already priced for perfection after running up like crazy, and it will likely keep trending down now that market sentiment has shifted. x.comÂ
Vertiv's growth and cash flow make its valuation the better risk/reward than Bloom Energy at these prices. It is the one I'd buy first for a long-term hold: 23x next year's earnings with 37% EPS growth, nearly $3B in free cash flow and almost no net debt. Adjusted operating profit of $1.087B topped the $938M guidance ceiling; revenue and EPS also beat estimates. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy appears less capital intensive than other AI companies even while expanding capacity. It appears to have begun the year with $2.5 billion in cash and still has $2.5 billion despite spending on expansion. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy looks hard to justify at these levels, while Tesla is the stronger company over five years. Bloom is a $4 billion run-rate supplier that must keep doubling, with a multiple resting almost entirely on AI needing onsite power; if AI capex pauses, its story wobbles. Tesla prints about $100 billion a year with a fortress balance sheet, and its multiple bets on FSD, Cybercab, energy and Optimus atop a real car company. Bloom can still be the hotter trade for a quarter or two. x.com x.comÂ