Ugly housing conditions provide the contrarian sentiment for a major homebuilder bull run over the next 12 months. Bears investing through the rearview mirror are going to be proven wrong. x.com 

High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Real estate stocks suffer badly as interest rates rise, and the sector needs help or its 50-day moving average will be taken out. Welltower, the sector's largest name, is starting to struggle to sustain its parabolic move. x.com 

REITs stay in the penalty box because a reaccelerating labor market rules out Fed cuts this year. Job openings jumped to 7.618M against a 7.295M forecast and a prior 6.887M, and with core inflation still hot, Warsh can't cut into that. Rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs, small caps and anything long-duration stay under pressure, while shorter-duration, cash-flow-positive value keeps working. x.com  x.com 

As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Apartment REITs UDR, Centerspace and Mid-America Apartment Communities are buys as apartment demand stays resilient while new supply slows. With the American Dream of homeownership being delayed, renter demand holds up, and the massive AvalonBay and Equity Residential merger is significant for the sector. As Sam Zell understood, discomfort creates opportunity. x.com 

Homebuilders such as Builders FirstSource are priced like trash, so any improvement in rate expectations should send them higher. Pricing in two or three rate hikes by year-end looks wrong with oil falling to $75, AI acting as a productivity tailwind and the midterms approaching. x.com 

American Homes 4 Rent is built for a market where high prices and elevated mortgage rates keep millions of families renting longer. It owns 60,000+ single-family rentals in fast-growing markets and builds new communities rather than competing with first-time buyers for existing homes, adding supply the market needs. It has a BBB balance sheet and a growing dividend, and trades at 19x versus a historical multiple of 36x. x.com 

Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent trade at very wide discounts because of political multiple compression, not fundamentals, so prices should reset if policy risk is walked back, diluted or delayed. Fundamentals remain solid: elevated mortgage rates keep would-be buyers renting, sustaining occupancy above 95% and rent growth, and the tight supply of affordable homes gives landlords pricing power. NAV per share could trend toward the upper $30s to low $40s over the next 12 months. x.com  … Show more

Living costs in a stage 4 decline will take over from AI as the driver of the US equity bull market. AI drove it since 2023, but its capital spending and debt loads are in question; falling food prices, rents and housing prices make a bearish view hard to justify. x.com  x.com