Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.com 

PolyPid's asymmetry is greater after its Azurity licensing deal, which removed the financing risk even as the share price fell. The deal brings $30 million upfront plus up to $290 million in milestones and funds indication expansion, against a market cap of about $85 million. A base case of $250 million peak sales and an 18-20% royalty yields $45-50 million a year, worth $300-500 million at 6-10x, plus a manufacturing margin. Approval odds are about 75%, though price recovery may lag. x.com  … Show more

Natural Resource Partners is best bought at a cyclical trough, because a royalty business can deploy capital at depressed prices and then gain from any commodity price rise without operational risk. A post the author replies to calls it a good-to-great royalty business that rapidly paid down debt from operating cash flow and trades at a high-teens free cash flow yield. x.com 

Money keeps rotating into healthcare, which is where market strength is. The rotation into biotech continues, with leveraged biotech exposure offering the fireworks. Pharma offers steadier, broad exposure with no dominant holding and a chart that is fine enough. x.com  x.com 

Biotech stocks are breaking out of a five-year range because the threat from oil and interest rates was priced in years ago. Many of the most undervalued growth stocks are now in biotech, and research discovery is getting a boost from AI, making it perhaps the sector with most to gain from AI productivity. Charts support it: daily volume spikes have tended to mark major bottoms, the weekly held its quarterly averages to form a base, and the monthly shows a healthy pullback to the one-year EMA. … Show more