SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.com 

SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX turns bearish after losing the support needed for the bullish setup. The daily shooting-star pattern is now playing out, although the move was not a surprise because the setup had always looked two-way. x.com 

SpaceX looks due for a bounce because sentiment has become extremely negative and stretched rubber bands snap. The stock fell from $171 on June 30 to $108, its lowest close, on worries about the lockup, high beta and AI, and permabears declaring victory is a contrarian sentiment signal. Large holders likely hedged with shorts or puts on SpaceX or on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines, and that unwind could be violent. The negativity should abate. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX shorts are crowded into a stock that big institutions are set to buy. Real-time short interest is 289.1M shares, or 45% of the 638.9M share float, up from 35%. Fidelity, Baron, Vanguard, Invesco, BlackRock and Capital Group know the August 10 lockup expiry is coming and want to gross up their positions; Fidelity will not stay at 1.66%. The first several quarters of a newly listed company are also usually heavily sandbagged. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX's feared lockup selling never came, removing the main reason to wait until December to buy. The first lockup expiry passed without the immense selling many expected, and it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk. x.com 

SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com 

SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com 

SpaceX shares may simply hover here, as lockup expirations look mostly priced in after relentless daily selling. Its post-IPO chart looks awfully similar to Tesla's. A sharp move back to all-time highs isn't expected, but a bounce is possible. x.com