The Rock Trading Group
CMT, Technical/Situational Analysis, Options Trading
Micron beat big and guided well above the Street, though the stock has yet to reflect it. Fiscal Q4 revenue, in a 14-week quarter, was $54.23B versus $50.9B consensus and $11.32B a year ago, and non-GAAP EPS was $33.42 versus $31.49. FQ1'27 guidance calls for $61.5B of revenue versus $56.64B consensus and $38.15 EPS versus $35.07. For now the stock is stuck in a $1,040-$1,080 range, like the QQQ. x.com x.com
Micron is set up for a new all-time high after Wednesday's earnings if results again blow past expectations. The stock is back near $1,080, where it closed on June's earnings day before gapping to a $1,255 high. Estimates call for $31.56 EPS on $51.20B revenue, against guidance of $50.0B ±$1.0B and $31.00 ±$1.00, and analysts keep revising up. Dips before Wednesday are buyable; a move to $1,200 beforehand would suggest the good news is priced in. x.com
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
Micron's FY2028 earnings could substantially exceed the displayed $206.89 normalized EPS estimate, leaving the shares at about 3x FY2028 EPS. A beat of at least 30-50% depends on demand, pricing, margins and buybacks. x.com
Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com
Micron's Q4 FY26 results beat across the board, per a quoted summary. Revenue rose 379% to $54.23B against a $51.07B estimate, adjusted EPS of $33.42 beat $31.61, and operating cash flow reached $43.97B. Q1 FY27 guidance of $61.5B in revenue and $38.15 in EPS tops estimates. x.com
Micron's latest quarter is strong enough that the stock should be up big. Cash rose from $30 billion to $73 billion in a single quarter, and guidance beat expectations by about $6 billion. x.com x.com
Micron's own guidance suggests the memory recovery comes later than consensus thinks. Its CFO guided to rising margins through fiscal 2027 alongside a more moderate pace of price increases, and Micron said it has no line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance. x.com x.com
Micron's AI memory-chip sales and accelerating growth support its upside case. Its 3.3/5 WATCH rating reflects a business with 60% of sales from cloud and data-center chips, 64 cents of profit per sales dollar and 256% sales growth last year. At the Oct. 15 close of $878.84, it traded about 42% below estimated fair value of $1,512.34. The case needs strong sales growth and expanding margins and cash flow; slower growth or a price outrunning the business are warning signs. x.com
Micron's results keep exceeding what a peak-earnings view implies. Revenue rose 379% to $54.2B with an 87% gross margin and $33.2B of free cash flow, Q1 revenue guidance implies 351% growth, and supply should get tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028. The market still sees peak earnings. x.com
Micron fell after hours despite a huge fundamental forecast, which shows everything is priced in for now. x.com
Micron may have room to rise because its guided quarterly operating income dwarfs Tesla's despite a lower market value. Micron guides about $51B next quarter versus Tesla's $0.7B last quarter, while Tesla is valued 50% higher. Tesla offers no conventional near-term operating-income guidance, so the comparison uses its latest reported quarter. Micron's larger earnings and accumulated free cash flow provide a cushion, though nobody knows the future; this is not a call for Tesla to fall. x.com … Show more
