Micron delivered a massive quarter and raised guidance, keeping the bullish case intact. Rising bond yields are capping tech for now, so the open question is whether the stock can break out soon. x.com
Larry Tentarelli
Founder & Strategist of Blue Chip Daily, Trend Investing, Breakout Alerts
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
Micron's latest quarter is strong enough that the stock should be up big. Cash rose from $30 billion to $73 billion in a single quarter, and guidance beat expectations by about $6 billion. x.com x.com
Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com x.com
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.com
Demand for Micron's products is through the roof, making its revenue surge only the beginning as it heads into 2027. The attached eight-quarter chart puts Q4 FY26 revenue at $54.2 billion, and Micron's gross margin is cited at 86%. A $100 billion revenue quarter could arrive in the not-so-distant future; the stock is a good bet here. x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
Micron's AI-driven cash generation looks outsized for its size amid market concern about debt risk. Its quarterly free cash flow has reached about $32.9B in under two years, above the peak quarters shown for Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft; only Nvidia and Apple have posted higher quarters, despite each being about five times Micron's size. x.com
Micron fell after hours despite a huge fundamental forecast, which shows everything is priced in for now. x.com
Micron's results confirm the bullish case, and management will raise capex in 2027 because it cannot keep up with demand. Revenue was $54.229B versus $51.069B expected, and adjusted EPS $33.42 versus $31.60. Q1 guidance calls for $61.5B of revenue versus a $57.024B estimate and adjusted EPS of $38.15. x.com