SoFi's fee growth and improving credit support its Q3 triple beat. Revenue was $1.39B vs $1.26B expected, EPS 18 cents vs 17, membership 17.1M, and guidance rose. Interchange fees grew 77% year on year, brokerage fees 47%; personal-loan net charge-offs fell to 2.26%. The guide assumes two more rate hikes this year; one looks plausible, not two, leaving upside. For 2027, it assumes four hikes and a couple more percentage points of tax. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SoFi's improving credit and fee mix support its long-term earnings case. Q3 originations hit $16.9B; estimated all-in annualized personal-loan charge-offs, excluding delinquent sales, fell 80 bps YoY to 3.4%. Fee revenue hit $571M, or 42% of total. Management says current capital and organic generation can fund 2027 growth without a raise. $100 a share is aggressive on 2027 earnings; a multi-year path needs 25-40% revenue growth, wider margins and credit discipline. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Capital One's stronger credit and improved net-interest and non-interest revenue make its 9x earnings and 1.1x book valuation appealing for a quality card business with a global payments network. Operating expenses were in line. x.com 

A clearing of the gloomy environment will make lending stocks the next multibaggers. SoFi, Upstart and Klarna are down now, much as many cybersecurity stocks were before rising two- to fourfold in under six months. Better Home & Finance (-75% YTD), LendingTree (-55%) and Rocket (-47%) join them among lending names whose current prices will look dirt cheap in 2028-2029. x.com  x.com 

Mastercard and Visa do best in an inflationary environment with growth holding up, because they are toll booths on nominal spending. So far everything in the consumer's basket has gone up except rent, one of the few items not paid by credit card, and Mastercard's expected low-teens topline growth over the next few years shows the tailwinds. A recession would offset some of the higher gross dollar volume, and deflation would have the opposite effect. x.com  x.com 

Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.com 

Bank of America risks losing its near-free checking deposits if cash agents move idle balances out between paydays. If software forecasts bills and refills checking before they're due, a fat cushion at the bank stops making sense; the bank keeps the customer but loses the cheap deposit. BAC averaged $957B of consumer deposits last quarter, 59% in checking, and paying more to keep cash hurts the spread. Broader transfer authority would speed outflows; for now, watch deposit costs. x.com 

Citigroup's rally looks overdone. It is not a super-premium franchise, yet the stock has tripled since 2023. CEO Jane Fraser's plan is working and the shares were far cheaper than other money-center banks for the past decade, as @RAMCOCAPITAL notes, but the market seems to be making the wrong call on whether Citi is a credit card issuer or an investment bank and broker, though that view could be mistaken. x.com  x.com 

Fears that consumer AI agents like Muse will massively accelerate chargebacks, fee disputes and penalty reversals at banks like JPMorgan are overdone. Guardrails will limit what agents can approve autonomously, and higher-risk disputes will be escalated to humans. Agents will make consumers more powerful, not give them an unlimited license to claw money back. x.com 

US consumer cyclicals and broad market breadth look set to gain as Q2 bank results refute the K-shaped consumer doom thesis. Card spending rose 9% to 12% at JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo while credit quality improved: JPMorgan's card net charge-off rate fell to 3.34% from 3.47% and it cut full-year guidance, and Wells Fargo's credit-loss provision fell 9%. With rate tailwinds and falling gas, retail, transports, regional banks and equal-weight stocks signal a cyclical rotation. … Show more