Aylo
Crypto Researcher, Founder of Alpha Please
Bitcoin holding about $83K on the weekly close would show it is shaking off all bad news, likely taking it into the $90Ks. Bull markets spend lots of time grinding lower before pumping hard, and nervous sellers just after a bull phase offer very good entries. A weekly close below the May highs would set the downside targets for a higher low, with deviations below $78K possible on daily and weekly charts, though no monthly close below $78K is expected. x.com
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.com
A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Marathon Fusion's claim that it made stable gold from mercury is a reason to prefer Bitcoin to gold. The company says the demonstration beat CERN's record by a factor of 10. Sell gold and buy Bitcoin. x.com
Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply makes it preferable to oil, gold and silver, whose higher prices encourage more production. Sell those three commodities and buy Bitcoin. A gold-normalized historical scarcity-resistance ranking scores silver 83.6 and WTI oil 72.1 against gold's 100; it tracks historical loss of purchasing power to Bitcoin, not physical scarcity. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin's valuation looks stretched relative to network use, raising the risk of selling pressure. Its market value has risen faster than active addresses, lifting the NVM ratio while address activity has not kept up with price. This is a valuation warning, not a definite top like 2021 or 2025, nor a signal that price must fall immediately; it could keep rising with NVM high. x.com
Bitcoin's quantum-key concentration risk may be survivable over a sufficiently long horizon because even a government capture of Satoshi's coins need not be existential. Satoshi holds about 5.2% of supply; putting those and other stranded coins in one entity's hands would damage distribution and shake confidence, but gold has survived large government-held concentrations. This is uncertain: a 90%+ down candle might be needed to kill Bitcoin, while a committed holder base could rebuild it. x.com … Show more
Government will never stop printing money, which should make bitcoin, gold and land do well for two decades. x.com
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.com
Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.com