David's $BTC thesis: Lower volatility lifts Bitcoin allocations

David

Managing Partner in Energy, Bitcoin Power Law Analysis

12 Nov, 19:22Latest

Lower volatility lets institutions allocate more to Bitcoin at a fixed risk budget. Three-month annualized volatility fell from a 60% historical average to 38% in the ETF era; modeled allocations rise 58%, from 1.58% to 2.50%, without stronger conviction. A hypothetical $50T pool, $100K initial BTC and 3x market-cap response imply $188K-$229K, not a forecast. October's $404B US deficit, 35% worse than expected, versus 13,950 scheduled BTC issued favors Bitcoin's fixed supply. x.com x.com x.com

BTC

10 Nov, 18:48

Bitcoin has absorbed $6.8B of net 30-day selling with limited price damage, holding up better than 58% of comparable periods. Sellers are not gone; 20-day flow momentum is -$296M/day. At $72.8K, 5% above its $69.3K historical P10 and nearly 50% below its $146K power-law trend, it may be one of the market's cleanest asymmetric setups, with ~100% upside to trend. War de-escalation could lower oil and diesel, then inflation and real yields, weakening the dollar and improving BTC flows. x.com x.com x.com

BTC

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Unchained

13 Nov, 00:00

Crypto Podcast Hosted by Laura Shin

The real change is we've gone from onesie twzies individuals that had to be sort of idiosyncratic to the largest mainstream financial intermediaries in the world. ... The real big change is we've gone from individual wealth managers to the largest wealth management platforms in the world treating Bitcoin and crypto as a normal asset. ... The last piece of the institutional pie, which is institutions, pension funds, and even sovereign wealth funds, those are starting to come online. youtube.com

AlvaSupportsBroader platform adoption and emerging institutional participation would expand the channel for larger BTC allocations.

zerohedge

13 Nov, 02:21

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

In summary: the US is now paying 28 cents of every dollar collected in taxes just for the interest on the national debt (which will hit $41 trillion in 4-6 weeks). x.com

AlvaSupportsThe debt-service burden limits fiscal flexibility, reinforcing the thesis’s contrast between U.S. deficits and Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

zerohedge

13 Nov, 02:16

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

The biggest outlier was national defense spending, which in October soared almost 50% MoM to $129BN, an unheard of spike even during wartime. x.com

AlvaSupportsIdentifies a major contributor to October’s $404B deficit, adding fiscal-expansion evidence to Bitcoin’s fixed-supply comparison.

zerohedge

13 Nov, 02:18

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

And then there is of course interest expense: it soared to $115.5BN in October, the worst October on record, and on pace for $1.6 trillion in gross interest payments in fiscal 2027. ... At this rate, interest payments will surpass Social Security as the biggest outlay of the US Treasury by mid-2028. x.com

AlvaSupportsIf this trajectory holds, debt servicing would sustain deficit pressure, strengthening the fiscal contrast with Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

zerohedge

13 Nov, 02:09

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

Oct tax revenues dropped 8.8% YoY to $369BN. On an LTM basis, YoY growth was just 1.1% (down from 3.2% in Sept and 9.7% year ago). x.com

AlvaSupportsWeaker receipts add evidence behind October’s $404B deficit, reinforcing the fiscal contrast with Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

zerohedge

13 Nov, 02:13

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

At $773BN for October, this was 12% higher YoY, and the highest spending for October on record. x.com

AlvaSupportsAdds detail behind October’s $404B deficit, strengthening the fiscal-expansion side of Bitcoin’s fixed-supply comparison.

glassnode

12 Nov, 21:07

Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research

The Coinbase premium has been below zero through the whole slide from the September high. Its 30-day average is the deepest since February. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 all ran with a premium, and several started from discounts this deep. x.com

AlvaChallengesWeak U.S. buying challenges a near-term BTC flow reversal; a return to a premium would strengthen the recovery case.

Dow Jones

12 Nov, 20:57

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Bitcoin was 4% lower, at $71,476. It has fallen 14% over the past month and sits well off a September high of more than $85,500. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe deeper monthly drawdown weakens the limited-damage premise and leaves BTC only about 3.1% above the thesis’s $69.3K P10.

Dow Jones

12 Nov, 14:51

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Bitcoin falls to a 12-week low as oil prices rise after President Trump damped the prospect of a resolution to the Iran war. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe catalyst is working in reverse: fading settlement prospects are pressuring BTC, now at $71,704, roughly 3.5% above the $69.3K P10.

Walter Bloomberg

12 Nov, 14:16

Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg

Bitcoin falls to 12-week low of $72,103 - LSEG x.com

AlvaChallengesBTC’s cushion above the $69.3K P10 narrows to about 4%, weakening near-term resilience and bringing the downside reference closer to a test.

Dow Jones

12 Nov, 12:47

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Bitcoin was 2% lower at $72,848, moving broadly in line with the direction of Nasdaq futures. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe reversal of yesterday’s tech-led rebound weakens near-term resilience, bringing BTC back near the thesis’s $72.8K reference and 5% above P10.

Dow Jones

12 Nov, 07:49

Real-Time Financial News Wire

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted single-day outflows of almost $300 million on Nov. 11, which signals sluggish institutional demand, according to cryptocurrency trading firm Bitget. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesContinued institutional selling challenges a near-term flow reversal and raises the burden on Bitcoin’s ability to absorb supply.

Dow Jones

12 Nov, 01:59

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Beyond the U.S., several major central banks are expected to keep monetary policy restrictive in the coming months as inflation pressures persist, says Mahmoud Mashal at VT Markets Dubai. That paints a bullish outlook for global yields, dimming the appeal of riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, the senior analyst says. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesIf this outlook holds, monetary headwinds would delay BTC buying recovery; the report also cites continued ETF outflows.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 21:01

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Bitcoin recovered above $74,000 on Wednesday, riding a tech stock rally higher as investors push past concerns about further interest rate hikes. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedRecovery despite tightening concerns supports BTC resilience, though the reported 9% monthly loss tempers confidence in limited price damage.

glassnode

11 Nov, 19:10

Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research

Bitcoin's biggest liquidation cluster sits near $60k. ... Patient buyers have often found opportunity in forced selling, and a sweep of $60k would create plenty of it. x.com

AlvaMixedForced-selling risk below the $69.3K P10 widens the downside to weigh against upside to trend; a sweep could also offer a better entry.

glassnode

11 Nov, 14:03

Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research

Stablecoin supply is shrinking fast. Total supply fell $14.2B in 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022. A turn back to growth would be the first sign of new money. x.com

AlvaChallengesThe liquidity drain challenges a reversal in Bitcoin’s negative flows; renewed stablecoin growth would strengthen the recovery case.

glassnode

11 Nov, 13:51

Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research

Bitcoin has been grinding down and stablecoin supply is shrinking fast; the fastest contraction since June 2022. x.com

AlvaChallengesShrinking crypto liquidity weakens the prospect of reversing Bitcoin’s negative flow momentum, challenging the asymmetric setup’s near-term payoff.

KoolKrypto

11 Nov, 11:30

other

If that kind of cools down for a little bit, and also a lot of that more risk chasing money wants to find a new home because now they find AI is potentially a little bit less interesting, you actually could have this interesting period in regime change for where crypto now kind of gets much more of a bid. youtube.com

AlvaSupportsIf this rotation develops, it would help reverse Bitcoin’s negative flow momentum and support the asymmetric setup.

Eric Balchunas

11 Nov, 11:43

ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, Co-host of Trillions and ETF IQ

Many people forget just how long the 'winter' was for $GLD. ... it (saw 40% of investors bail) and took nearly a DECADE to get back to its that aum high again. ... Today it sits at nearly 3x that initial high water mark and has tied SPX perf since launching and is considered a wildly successful ETF category. My point: assets without cash flows run purely on sentiment and it changes. To me this is the closest analog to bitcoin ETFs and how to think about them. x.com

AlvaMixedThe analogy would allow eventual BTC flow recovery while warning that the asymmetric setup could take far longer to pay off.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 09:10

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Those odds have now reversed, says Derive.xyz's Nick Forster. "Our options market is pricing a 31% chance of Bitcoin finishing below $70K, compared with just 26% for a finish above $80K," he says. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesOptions imply a 31% chance of Bitcoin below $70K by Christmas versus 26% above $80K, weakening near-term confidence in the asymmetric setup near the $69.3K historical P10.

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