David
Managing Partner in Energy, Bitcoin Power Law Analysis
Bitcoin's futures financing structure has held up despite the selloff, leaving the bottom here or close in view. All 12 Deribit expirations trade above spot at $70,855; the 30-day annualized basis is 6.12% and longer maturities settle near 5.7%. The curve measures the cost of carrying exposure, not a forecast of spot price; price remains under pressure even though derivatives show less stress. x.com x.com
Lower volatility lets institutions allocate more to Bitcoin at a fixed risk budget. Three-month annualized volatility fell from a 60% historical average to 38% in the ETF era; modeled allocations rise 58%, from 1.58% to 2.50%, without stronger conviction. A hypothetical $50T pool, $100K initial BTC and 3x market-cap response imply $188K-$229K, not a forecast. October's $404B US deficit, 35% worse than expected, versus 13,950 scheduled BTC issued favors Bitcoin's fixed supply. x.com x.com x.com
This signal is no longer available. Showing the latest signals.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, was down by around 5.3% at $64,733.68 at 3:57 PM ET (20:57 GMT) on Saturday. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesBTC is roughly 8.6% below the thesis’s $70,855 reference, weakening the nearby-bottom inference from resilient futures financing.
glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Stablecoin supply is shrinking fast. It fell by $17B over the last month, the steepest drop since 2022. As holders swap stables to fiat they drain buying power from bitcoin:native and crypto. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe deeper liquidity contraction weakens the case for a nearby BTC bottom despite resilient futures financing.
MacKenzie Sigalos
CNBC technology correspondent covering AI and digital assets
Traders are increasingly betting against Bitcoin, with funding rates in the futures market turning negative for the first time in a month. That kind of pessimism has in the past marked a short term bottom, raising hopes that the worst of the selling may be over here. youtube.com
AlvaMixedNegative funding tempers the broader financing-resilience signal, while the cited historical pattern lends support to a nearby BTC bottom.
Unchained
Crypto Podcast Hosted by Laura Shin
The real change is we've gone from onesie twzies individuals that had to be sort of idiosyncratic to the largest mainstream financial intermediaries in the world. ... The real big change is we've gone from individual wealth managers to the largest wealth management platforms in the world treating Bitcoin and crypto as a normal asset. ... The last piece of the institutional pie, which is institutions, pension funds, and even sovereign wealth funds, those are starting to come online. youtube.com
AlvaSupportsBroader platform adoption and emerging institutional participation would expand the channel for larger BTC allocations.
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
In summary: the US is now paying 28 cents of every dollar collected in taxes just for the interest on the national debt (which will hit $41 trillion in 4-6 weeks). x.com
AlvaSupportsThe debt-service burden limits fiscal flexibility, reinforcing the thesis’s contrast between U.S. deficits and Bitcoin’s fixed supply.zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
The biggest outlier was national defense spending, which in October soared almost 50% MoM to $129BN, an unheard of spike even during wartime. x.com
AlvaSupportsIdentifies a major contributor to October’s $404B deficit, adding fiscal-expansion evidence to Bitcoin’s fixed-supply comparison.zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
And then there is of course interest expense: it soared to $115.5BN in October, the worst October on record, and on pace for $1.6 trillion in gross interest payments in fiscal 2027. ... At this rate, interest payments will surpass Social Security as the biggest outlay of the US Treasury by mid-2028. x.com
AlvaSupportsIf this trajectory holds, debt servicing would sustain deficit pressure, strengthening the fiscal contrast with Bitcoin’s fixed supply.zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
Oct tax revenues dropped 8.8% YoY to $369BN. On an LTM basis, YoY growth was just 1.1% (down from 3.2% in Sept and 9.7% year ago). x.com
AlvaSupportsWeaker receipts add evidence behind October’s $404B deficit, reinforcing the fiscal contrast with Bitcoin’s fixed supply.zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
At $773BN for October, this was 12% higher YoY, and the highest spending for October on record. x.com
AlvaSupportsAdds detail behind October’s $404B deficit, strengthening the fiscal-expansion side of Bitcoin’s fixed-supply comparison.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
The Coinbase premium has been below zero through the whole slide from the September high. Its 30-day average is the deepest since February. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 all ran with a premium, and several started from discounts this deep. x.com
AlvaChallengesWeak U.S. buying challenges a near-term BTC flow reversal; a return to a premium would strengthen the recovery case.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin was 4% lower, at $71,476. It has fallen 14% over the past month and sits well off a September high of more than $85,500. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe deeper monthly drawdown weakens the limited-damage premise and leaves BTC only about 3.1% above the thesis’s $69.3K P10.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin falls to a 12-week low as oil prices rise after President Trump damped the prospect of a resolution to the Iran war. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe catalyst is working in reverse: fading settlement prospects are pressuring BTC, now at $71,704, roughly 3.5% above the $69.3K P10.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Bitcoin falls to 12-week low of $72,103 - LSEG x.com
AlvaChallengesBTC’s cushion above the $69.3K P10 narrows to about 4%, weakening near-term resilience and bringing the downside reference closer to a test.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin was 2% lower at $72,848, moving broadly in line with the direction of Nasdaq futures. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe reversal of yesterday’s tech-led rebound weakens near-term resilience, bringing BTC back near the thesis’s $72.8K reference and 5% above P10.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted single-day outflows of almost $300 million on Nov. 11, which signals sluggish institutional demand, according to cryptocurrency trading firm Bitget. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesContinued institutional selling challenges a near-term flow reversal and raises the burden on Bitcoin’s ability to absorb supply.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Beyond the U.S., several major central banks are expected to keep monetary policy restrictive in the coming months as inflation pressures persist, says Mahmoud Mashal at VT Markets Dubai. That paints a bullish outlook for global yields, dimming the appeal of riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, the senior analyst says. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesIf this outlook holds, monetary headwinds would delay BTC buying recovery; the report also cites continued ETF outflows.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin recovered above $74,000 on Wednesday, riding a tech stock rally higher as investors push past concerns about further interest rate hikes. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedRecovery despite tightening concerns supports BTC resilience, though the reported 9% monthly loss tempers confidence in limited price damage.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Bitcoin's biggest liquidation cluster sits near $60k. ... Patient buyers have often found opportunity in forced selling, and a sweep of $60k would create plenty of it. x.com
AlvaMixedForced-selling risk below the $69.3K P10 widens the downside to weigh against upside to trend; a sweep could also offer a better entry.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Stablecoin supply is shrinking fast. Total supply fell $14.2B in 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022. A turn back to growth would be the first sign of new money. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe liquidity drain challenges a reversal in Bitcoin’s negative flows; renewed stablecoin growth would strengthen the recovery case.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Bitcoin has been grinding down and stablecoin supply is shrinking fast; the fastest contraction since June 2022. x.com
AlvaChallengesShrinking crypto liquidity weakens the prospect of reversing Bitcoin’s negative flow momentum, challenging the asymmetric setup’s near-term payoff.