Banana3
Professional Trader/Investor, Real Estate Developer, 25 Years’ Experience
Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com
AI buildout stocks remain attractive because adoption is still early while financing and demand persist. Six major financiers have committed half a trillion dollars to AI, and equipment is holding or gaining value despite depreciation fears. Nvidia trades at 16x forward earnings, Micron at 6x, Dell at 19x and TSMC at 20x earnings; inference and agents need more chips and speed. x.com
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
[Tokyo Electron] CY26 WFE raised to $160B (from $150B+ in July) and CY27 to $210B+ (from $190B+) ... Leading-edge logic prober shipments are expected to grow 60% y/y; expects >200 advanced packaging probers in both FY27 and FY28 x.com
AlvaSupportsHigher industry equipment forecasts and expected advanced-packaging investment support continued expansion of the chip supply chain serving AI demand.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Kioxia QSep26 ... - CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments x.com
AlvaSupportsLong-term agreements covering over half of Kioxia's 2028 bit shipments extend NAND demand visibility, supporting the durability of the market behind Micron's earnings growth.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
[Intel] ASIC revenue was up > 50% q/q and >2x y/y; tripled over the last three years and is guided to triple again over the next three ... - ASIC margins below corp avg. x.com
AlvaMixedIntel's projected ASIC expansion supports continuing custom-chip demand while highlighting a growing competing business relevant to Broadcom's growth outlook; its margins remain below Intel's corporate average.
Reuters
Global News Agency
An interactive Breakingviews calculator suggests that trimming a single year from the estimated “useful life” of these AI assets would erase some $36 billion of combined net income next year from the Big Tech foursome, theoretically leading to nearly $800 billion of lost market capitalization at their current valuation multiples. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesShortening equipment lives by one year could materially reduce earnings behind Amazon's and other hyperscalers' valuations, exposing accounting sensitivity in low-PEG arguments; the $36 billion estimate is a hypothetical Breakingviews calculation.Reuters
Global News Agency
Together, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta spent more than $200bn in the third quarter alone," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "Moving forward, the risk is that higher financing costs will absorb more of the cash generated, leaving less to fund expansion and repay debt." tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesHigher financing costs could consume more cash from strong cloud growth, limiting expansion and debt repayment and weakening the investment-return assumptions behind attractive AI-stock valuations.
Silicon Data
Compute-Market Data & Analytics
Once again neither on-demand GPU rental nor our LLM token indices is supposed to represent the average experience. ... Since May, the throughput a GPU must deliver to cover its rent from open-weight tokens has risen 25–83%, faster than steady software gains typically add, so margins for inference providers renting GPUs have likely compressed, while GPU owners have captured the gain through higher rents. x.com
AlvaMixedA 25–83% rise in break-even throughput suggests higher rents are benefiting GPU owners while compressing inference renters' margins, creating risk to sustained compute demand; the indices do not represent average market economics.
Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab
Business investment jumped +12.7% in 3Q26, the most since 3Q20, thanks to AI investment and buildout x.com
AlvaSupportsThe sharp rise in business investment, attributed to AI buildout, supports continued spending behind AI suppliers' growth forecasts.Silicon Data
Compute-Market Data & Analytics
The LLM token index has not put in a bottom as we had previously speculated and has resumed its decline even as on-demand GPU rental indices (a signal of marginal demand and not where most of compute cost sits) continue to surge towards ATHs. x.com
AlvaMixedRising on-demand GPU rents support strong marginal compute demand, while falling token prices alongside higher rental costs could pressure model-provider economics and the durability of infrastructure spending.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
MediaTek 4Q26 ... - 2027 ASIC is now at the high end of the $16B target (20% of the AI ASIC TAM) ... - second ASIC customer is confirmed (not from China); revenue begins in 2028 x.com
AlvaMixedMediaTek's expanding custom-chip revenue outlook supports continuing AI demand while highlighting a growing competitor to Broadcom's ASIC business, relevant to the durability of its growth estimates.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
—Q3 revenue & profit expected to reach record highs for the fourth consecutive quarter ... —Kioxia's entire CY2027 production capacity is already sold out x.com
AlvaSupportsSold-out 2027 capacity at a major NAND supplier supports sustained memory demand and pricing, strengthening the backdrop for Micron's earnings growth.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Amati Global Investors' Moikhail Zverev says. ... investors worry about competition from open-source models and Chinese labs to OpenAI and Anthropic, Zverev says. "I'm not sure frontier labs have that sustained advantage, and therefore I'm not sure that the capex bubble feeding that monster is sustainable." tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesCompetition that erodes frontier labs' advantages could undermine the durability of their infrastructure spending, challenging growth assumptions behind leading AI stocks' low PEG ratios.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia H1 FY27 Results (YoY, JPY): ... "Sales prices significantly increased, driving the majority of this quarter’s revenue growth" ... — SSD & Storage: +504.1% to 2.79T ... — Operating Profit: +2,395.6% to 3.26T (76.9% margin) x.com
AlvaSupportsHigher NAND selling prices and exceptional supplier profitability support Micron's near-term pricing backdrop, while showing that revenue growth is heavily dependent on price increases.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
OpenAI CEO sees Amazon as especially well positioned for agentic commerce ... I think they're in a great place if commerce moves much more agentic. Amazon in particular has this amazing defensibility via the fulfillment network. And so, you can use Amazon kind of from anywhere. x.com
AlvaSupportsAmazon's fulfillment network could preserve its competitive advantage as shopping becomes more agentic, supporting its position as a preferred AI investment.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: Memory makers are cautious about adding capacity, scarred by decades of boom-bust cycles. ... "And then, all of a sudden, these guys are each going to make like $100 billion of free cash flow in a year. Unbelievable. But I think they all remember their history. How many times they almost went bankrupt by making too many fabs and being promised this time it was different." x.com
AlvaSupportsCaution about adding memory capacity could sustain pricing and Micron's earnings growth despite exceptional expected cash generation, supporting the durability behind its low PEG.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bernstein analysts say. ... Advertising revenue growth slowed to 12% on-year in the third quarter. ... However, the company's guidance for advertising revenue growth in the fourth quarter is encouraging, they add. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedThe advertising miss raises questions about AI disruption to a major Amazon profit driver, weakening confidence in earnings growth, while encouraging fourth-quarter guidance tempers that concern.
Erin Griffith
Technology startups and venture capital reporter at the New York Times
I think in q three, they grew 44%. That's a pretty significant slowdown from gangbusters growth down to just great growth. But is that going to continue on that trajectory? In that case, the growth story isn't as exciting, and perhaps demand isn't gonna be through the roof forever. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaMixedAnthropic's reported slowdown to 44% growth in Q3 suggests demand is still expanding rapidly but may be moderating, raising risk to infrastructure growth forecasts if that trend continues.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The growth impulse from the massive amounts of sums spent on the AI buildout has countered the drag from the energy shock, keeping global growth surprisingly resilient so far this year. ... "We are passing the peak impulse from the AI boom," Goldman economists said, forecasting smaller contributions from AI investment and asset-driven consumer spending in the coming quarters. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedAI spending has supported economic growth, but the forecast of a smaller contribution in coming quarters flags potential moderation in investment growth that could challenge earnings assumptions behind low PEG ratios.Reuters
Global News Agency
China's CXMT said on Friday it swung to a net profit in the third quarter as surging AI-driven demand drove prices higher for memory chips. ... CXMT's third-quarter revenue grew 613% year-on-year to 118.7 billion yuan. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedAI-driven memory pricing supports Micron's demand backdrop, while a Chinese competitor's rapidly growing revenue and return to profit highlight competition relevant to longer-term earnings durability.
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
Lots of last five minute chart-destroying trades ahead of an election that is thought to close of data center building. Won't happen but we know the psychological damage and hedge funds want out... x.com
AlvaSupportsAttributing selling to election fears and hedge-fund exits, while rejecting a halt in data-center construction, supports the view that the correction could reflect temporary sentiment pressure rather than weaker AI demand.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Here are some of the data points worrying Amazon investors after yesterday's quarterly results. ... Overall revenue increased 12% to $201.9 billion, and net income was $20.7 billion. Both were below estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. ... Advertising revenue growth slowed, hitting 12% year-over-year, excluding changes in foreign exchange rates, during the third quarter. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesRevenue and profit below consensus, alongside slowing advertising growth, weaken confidence in the growth estimates underpinning Amazon's low PEG.
