Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strive's bitcoin treasury is scaling at a striking pace. It bought 6,182 BTC in a week to reach 43,000, up 17%; holdings are up 54% less than a month into the quarter and 5.6 times since the start of the year. Effective common shares outstanding also rose from 124.1 million to 127.3 million during the week. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin treasury companies will and should trade at a discount to NAV, since money in a double-tax structure has no reason to trade at a premium to money. Participants are harvesting the premium against each other in a zero-sum game until it flips to a discount, in bull or bear markets. Since tracking began, bitcoin rose 4.9% and Strive's bitcoin holdings 4.7%, yet Strive shares fell 14.8%, leaving bitcoin 19.7% ahead. x.com  x.com 

Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin treasury company equity like Strive's should trade at a discount to NAV, so its 59% premium is mispriced and declining as shareholders realize they pay up to take on lots of incremental risk. Only a rising bitcoin price increases bitcoin per share. Shareholders can collapse the premium by doing what the company does: sell the stock and buy bitcoin directly. x.com  x.com 

Strive's new preferred and warrant proceeds give it capital to expand its bitcoin treasury. Holdings rose from 27,462 to 36,818 BTC in three weeks; the upsized $630M SATS IPO, its second preferred with a 15% coupon paid every business day, and another $369M from warrants are not in that count yet. The bullish case is 100,000 BTC by summer 2027. x.com 

Strive's Bitcoin holdings now roughly match its market cap, leaving room for the treasury's value to rise with Bitcoin and further purchases. Its 43,000 BTC are worth about $3.455 billion; at $100,000 per coin, they would be worth $4.3 billion before this week's expected purchases. Holdings are on track for 50,000 by next week or early November and could reach 100,000 by spring 2027. x.com 

Strive's move to daily dividends on its SATA preferred transfers value from common holders to preferred holders through a higher effective yield, which is bad for mNAV though good for Bitcoin. That makes owning the common hard to justify. Strategy needed a shareholder vote just to pay twice a month. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's mNAV has dropped below 1, which will make it much harder to issue new shares. The company is valued at just $29.5 billion despite holding over $51 billion of bitcoin, as investors who once treated it like a leveraged bitcoin ETF, issuing shares to buy more bitcoin at a premium, now doubt the whole structure amid serious dilution. x.com  x.com