Steve McIntosh
CEO & CIO of Nighthawk Management Group, Momentum Trading
Bitcoin has absorbed a week of bad news without budging, a sign of strength. Even a cringe-worthy Michael Saylor video couldn't bring it down, and Coinbase has nearly closed its post-earnings gap down. Bitcoin's average daily range has narrowed to about 2%, less than most utility companies, allowing tight risk on a historically volatile asset. x.com
Bitcoin's upside needs lower oil and inflation and stronger risk appetite; that macro shift has not arrived. IBIT holding 46.3 is a good sign, and its topping short-term cycle is not a deal killer. x.com
An accelerated IEA emergency oil release could ease inflation pressure and help turn markets, including bitcoin, around. Strong Meta earnings showing AI returns or a softer Fed outlook on further hikes could also calm risk assets. Bitcoin may see another quick selloff first, but it looks capable of holding $80K through the next few days; holding there would suggest much of the fear is priced in. x.com
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin's second-leg squeeze could be a big one as the dollar falls and rates back off. Traders positioned for an easy gap fill got caught right before the spring higher, and upside volume is returning. x.com
Bitcoin gains a major legitimacy signal from ICE's involvement in a Hyperliquid futures venture, giving prospective buyers cover to invest. Per @standuquesne, trade.xyz is partnering with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US. Despite nonstop bad headlines keeping price near $80k, crypto fundamentals are improving; bitcoin may need only time, even if it chops or dips to $76k first. x.com x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
