Trader C0bb
Derivatives Trader & Portfolio Manager, Creator of G-Ron TrendCloud
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Mikhail Zverev says. ... "To have such demand destruction because of the memory cost and availability, which obviously is caused by AI pull, just shows that AI is crowding out so many things in the digital economy." tradingview.com
AlvaMixedAI demand drawing memory away from PCs supports the supply-crowding mechanism, while the resulting demand destruction could limit Micron's gains in ordinary DRAM.
Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
Korean suppliers plan to cut PC DRAM shipments by more than 20% YoY in 2027. With the U.S. supplier locking in volumes under SCAs, Korean suppliers are set to deepen their PC DRAM supply cuts to more than 40% YoY, accelerating the shift toward server DRAM. x.com
AlvaSupportsTrendForce projects Korean suppliers will cut PC DRAM shipments by more than 20% year over year in 2027, potentially exceeding 40% as capacity shifts toward server DRAM, supporting tighter ordinary-memory supply.
Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
Zinsner is too optimistic. PC unit sales will take a 20% hit next year x.com
AlvaChallengesA forecast 20% decline in 2027 PC unit sales would reduce demand for conventional DRAM, potentially offsetting the supply squeeze from HBM production.
Sandisk Corporation
Developer and manufacturer of NAND flash storage devices and solutions
If anything, I see it as, and I want to be careful on this because it's still early, but is it good enough to replace places where I'm using DRAM? Can I get enough endurance? Can I get enough performance if I run NAND in an SLC mode because the cost differential is huge, 20 to 40 x?
AlvaChallengesSandisk sees early potential for SLC NAND to replace some DRAM uses because of a 20–40-fold cost differential, offering a possible way to ease conventional DRAM demand and scarcity.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090
The next memory bust does not need SI to stop growing. The last two downturns began with customers working through inventory. Buyers who had stocked up paused orders, and suppliers were hit by falling prices as well as weaker shipments. x.com
AlvaChallengesCustomer inventory corrections could weaken ordinary DRAM orders and pricing even while AI grows, challenging the durability of Micron's opportunity from HBM-driven supply constraints.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that PC sales are likely to remain weak for the next couple of years. Intel now expects the company's total addressable market for PCs to contract by about 12% this year, Zinsner said. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesA projected 12% contraction in Intel's PC market this year and weakness lasting a couple of years point to demand destruction that could offset tighter conventional DRAM supply.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Chief Executive Andy Jassy disclosed the company would spend an additional $20 billion on top of the $200 billion already announced. He attributed part of the increase to the higher cost of memory. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsHigher memory costs contributing to Amazon's expanded capital budget show memory suppliers capturing more AI infrastructure spending, supporting Micron's pricing opportunity.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Intel forecast quarterly revenue and profit below estimates on Thursday, warning that a slowdown in the PC market driven by elevated memory costs would persist into next year. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedElevated memory costs show pricing strength reaching the PC market, but the resulting slowdown into next year could weaken demand for Micron's conventional DRAM.Sam Altman
podcast
For a very long time, if you were a producer of DRAM, you would invest $20 billion of CapEx to make $19 billion. ... But, until right now, I don't think making memory has ever been a great business over a long period of time. And then all of a sudden, these guys are each going to make like $100 billion of free cash flow in a year. ... But, I think they all remember their history. How many times they almost went bankrupt by making too many fabs and being promised this time it was different. media.transistor.fm
AlvaSupportsMemory producers' history of boom-bust losses makes them cautious about adding capacity even amid exceptional cash generation, supporting the thesis that AI demand can tighten ordinary DRAM supply.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Samsung: "Surging AI-driven demand likely to further tighten supply shortages compared with CY26" x.com
AlvaSupportsAn expectation that AI demand will worsen supply shortages relative to 2026 supports a prolonged tight memory market relevant to Micron's ordinary DRAM opportunity.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Samsung 3Q26 ... semi capex $53.1B in 2026; Memory capex driven by new fabs; Foundry capex for Taylor x.com
AlvaChallengesMemory spending directed toward new fabs points to capacity additions that could offset HBM's squeeze on conventional DRAM supply.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
[Samsung] DRAM ASP up around 20% q/q, bit shipments up low-to-mid single digit % q/q ... 4Q DRAM bit growth guided mid-to-high teens % Q/Q x.com
AlvaSupportsStrong DRAM price gains alongside modest third-quarter shipment growth support a tight pricing environment relevant to Micron, with higher fourth-quarter shipments expected.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
HBM4E/HBM5 larger die sizes and more metal layers to limit DRAM bit supply x.com
AlvaSupportsThis supports the thesis that HBM production constrains conventional DRAM supply: larger dies and more metal layers limit the number of DRAM bits produced.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
Jaejune Kim, Executive Vice President of the Memory Business in Samsung Electronics’ Device Solutions (DS) division, said ... “Next year’s HBM supply is already sold out, with pricing negotiations concluded at our target levels,” adding that “requests for additional volume continue to come in.” x.com
AlvaSupportsSold-out HBM supply and continued requests for more point to strong AI-memory demand, supporting the thesis that HBM production could tighten capacity available for conventional DRAM.
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
*SAMSUNG SEES 2026 CAPEX AT 84.4T WON VS 52.7T WON IN 2025 x.com
AlvaChallengesSamsung expects 2026 capex of KRW84.4 trillion versus KRW52.7 trillion in 2025, adding a potential supply-growth risk to the thesis that HBM demand will tighten ordinary DRAM.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
SAMSUNG: GIVEN CURRENT CONTRACT NEGOTIATION TRENDS, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT 60–70% OF OUR TOTAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY WILL BE COVERED BY LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS THROUGH 2030. x.com
AlvaSupportsSamsung expects 60–70% of its production capacity to be covered by LTAs through 2030, indicating that memory supply is being committed well ahead and supporting Micron's opportunity in ordinary DRAM.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Meta, Microsoft and Amazon signed contracts with Kioxia this year to secure long-term supply by committing to higher prices. The contracts protect Kioxia's profits if the market turns. ... Apple is expected to spend $25 billion on flash storage this year for about the same amount it bought for $6 billion in 2025, according to estimates by TechInsights. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedKioxia's reported higher-price contracts protect supplier profits in a downturn, while TechInsights estimates Apple's flash spending will rise sharply, showing that memory cost inflation can pressure customers.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Meta, Microsoft and Amazon signed contracts with Kioxia this year to secure long-term supply by committing to higher prices. The contracts protect Kioxia's profits if the market turns. The company declined to comment. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsKioxia's reported contracts with major buyers commit them to higher prices and protect its profits if the flash market turns, supporting the thesis that contracted memory sales can cushion a downturn.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Samsung Electronics: Chip Business Posted Record Profit of KRW106.5T in 3Q ... It reiterated that tight memory supply will persist over the next few years, keeping chip prices elevated. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedSamsung's record chip profit and reiterated expectation of tight memory supply support elevated pricing relevant to Micron, while the earnings miss signals that expectations for the sector are demanding.
Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
Because today’s AI workloads need the bandwidth and capacity it provides. ... A technology capable of replacing HBM could certainly emerge. But it is not ready today. And demand for HBM is far too strong for the market to wait. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe lack of a ready substitute for HBM's bandwidth and capacity supports continued demand for Micron's HBM despite its manufacturing inefficiency.