Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
Aehr Test Systems is forming a nice base after a big run-up, with volatility contracting to tight levels relative to its history. Relative measured volatility is zero, Friday was an inside day, and its 10% range compared with a 16% average true range over 20 days. Last quarter's earnings turned positive, with 1,200% year-over-year growth. x.com
Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit because testing is a bottleneck to scaling AI chips. Testing demand is about to surge. Investors did not question its price-to-sales ratio at 120, despite the current P/S objection. x.com x.com
Aehr Test Systems may be the best of breed in chip equipment, with the strongest year-over-year EPS growth in the space as a maker of chip test equipment. It is no longer the momentum play it was, but today's push off its short-term low on massive volume looks like the real deal. x.com
Aehr Test Systems' very lumpy machine sales typically make for a poor business model. x.com
Aehr Test Systems had a great quarterly call, and the stock now sits at a key pivot. x.com
Aehr Test Systems is winning repeat AI business, with a $22M follow-on order from a major AI customer for its FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in systems that adds chip capacity over the next six months. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy and a $175 target, calling it undervalued given its AI, silicon photonics and networking exposure. After three straight weeks of selling off the highs, volume is coming in while the stock holds its 200-day EMA, setting up a curl higher. x.com
Aehr Test Systems' bull case looks overstated on a detailed financial model, summarized in a table for investors meeting CEO Gayn at the William Blair conference. x.com
Aehr Test Systems' FY2027 guidance for 160–200% revenue growth is conservative, built on backlog, pending deals and pilot programs, and it should beat the top end by at least 15–20%, implying about 245% growth. That gives the stock a shot at $150-plus within 12 months, especially if it is on track for $300 million-plus of FY2028 revenue; FY2029 revenue could reach $474 million. The post-earnings fade that erased most of the gains is an opportunity. x.com x.com
Aehr Test Systems' selloff has been excessive, despite concern about Teradyne expanding into burn-in, given where the two actually compete, as @LIWEI_TWCapital's comparison shows. x.com
Aehr Test Systems is unattractive near $100, at 22.5x sales and 112x forward earnings, even though it will very likely go above $100. Other burn-in names such as AEM Holdings look better placed to play catch-up. x.com
Aehr Test Systems' AI wafer-level burn-in business is scaling, with a $22M follow-on order from its lead AI processor customer to expand capacity for high-volume production. That customer is already planning more capacity, and Aehr is expanding talks with other hyperscalers. The stock reached fresh all-time highs, and its recent strength looks like institutional accumulation. x.com x.com x.com
