Ted
Bitcoin/Ethereum Research, On-Chain Data & Macro-Based Trading
Bitcoin has no floor while the Binance hacker holds about $1.5B in BTC. Spot selling, absent US buyers and forced liquidations add pressure. Frozen stablecoins still leave the hacker with unfreezable ETH. A close below $78.3K puts $77.7K in play; BTC needs to reclaim $80K before a bottom call. Binance confirming full coverage could speed a recovery, while stolen ETH sales or more bad news risk another wave. Wider market weakness usually drives bigger drops. x.com x.com x.com x.com
A major exchange hack looks set to push Bitcoin down to a higher low. DeItaone reported $2.77 billion in Binance-wallet outflows amid drain suspicions, initially without confirmation of a hack. The hack was later described as confirmed and larger than first thought; despite initial assurances, user funds are probably not fully safe. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin faces additional selling pressure because Binance's SAFU fund has 15,000 BTC to sell to cover hack losses. That supply will also suppress its price. x.com
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Bitcoin remains vulnerable to Binance-driven pressure: CZ's bullish post was followed by what looked like Binance capping BTC near $86k in its books, and trouble for the exchange could hit the market harder. Tradfi news reported Binance could face revived charges or fines if its settlement is breached. x.com
Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com
Bitcoin's current drop is driven by market manipulation as major players reportedly sell BTC while retail traders are liquidated. Binance, Kraken, Coinbase, Trade Republic and Wintermute reportedly sold a combined 54,321 BTC, about $4.47 billion. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin gains a major legitimacy signal from ICE's involvement in a Hyperliquid futures venture, giving prospective buyers cover to invest. Per @standuquesne, trade.xyz is partnering with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US. Despite nonstop bad headlines keeping price near $80k, crypto fundamentals are improving; bitcoin may need only time, even if it chops or dips to $76k first. x.com x.com
The Binance hack is part of the trouble Bitcoin's charts had been signaling. A four-year-cycle low looks to be incoming. x.com x.com
