Ted
Bitcoin/Ethereum Research, On-Chain Data & Macro-Based Trading
Bitcoin remains under pressure as perp traders keep shorting while spot stays flat. Net shorts are at their highest since the July 1 bottom, yet BTC has kept falling in recent days. A short-side liquidity cluster at $76,000-$77,500 could draw a rally if the stock market gains more momentum. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin's bounce still lacks buyers. The Coinbase premium remains deeply negative and spot is selling despite longs being flushed; oversold does not mean bottomed. Holding $75,000 offers breathing room, but losing it puts $74,000 next. A bullish turn needs real spot buying and a reclaim of $77,700. x.com
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Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted single-day outflows of almost $300 million on Nov. 11, which signals sluggish institutional demand, according to cryptocurrency trading firm Bitget. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe withdrawals challenge the flat-spot premise and add institutional selling pressure alongside perp shorting, making the conditional rally harder.
glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Bitcoin's biggest liquidation cluster sits near $60k. These are longs opened near the bottom, and price has not tested their entries since it shot up in August. Patient buyers have often found opportunity in forced selling, and a sweep of $60k would create plenty of it. x.com
AlvaSupportsRemaining leveraged longs reinforce “oversold does not mean bottomed” and widen the potential downside beyond $74,000 before forced selling could attract buyers.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Stablecoin supply is shrinking fast. Total supply fell $14.2B in 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022. A turn back to growth would be the first sign of new money. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe liquidity drain reinforces the missing-buyers thesis; a reversal would support the fresh capital needed for a bullish turn.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Bitcoin has been grinding down and stablecoin supply is shrinking fast; the fastest contraction since June 2022. x.com
AlvaSupportsReduced stablecoin liquidity reinforces the missing-buyers thesis and makes a sustained return of Bitcoin spot demand harder.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
On. Nov. 4, traders were pricing a 53% chance of Bitcoin finishing above $80,000 by Christmas, and a 15% chance of a drop below $70,000. Those odds have now reversed, says Derive.xyz's Nick Forster. "Our options market is pricing a 31% chance of Bitcoin finishing below $70K, compared with just 26% for a finish above $80K," he says. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsDerive’s Christmas odds below $70,000 rose from 15% to 31%, while odds above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%, reinforcing caution that Bitcoin has yet to establish a durable bottom.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The possibility of a bearish long-term scenario for bitcoin can't be ruled out, writes ING analyst Roelof-Jan van den Akker. ... "While prices could temporarily stabilize within the $62,660-$58,020 support area, such consolidation would not necessarily invalidate the risk of a subsequent and more substantial decline," he writes. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe technical warning supports caution on a Bitcoin bottom and expands downside risk beyond $74,000: even stabilization at $62,660–$58,020 could precede a larger decline, in the analyst’s view.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
US spot ETFs saw $696M of net outflows on Friday, the largest single day since January. ... Only two days in the past year saw larger outflows, and both came before price fell further. x.com
AlvaSupportsFriday’s $696M spot ETF outflow, the largest since January, reinforces the missing-buyers thesis; Glassnode notes that the only two larger days in the past year preceded further declines.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Bitcoin falls to 11-week low of $73,588 after U.S. inflation data - LSEG x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported post-inflation fall to an 11-week low of $73,588 extends the bearish scenario, with Bitcoin below both $75,000 and the $74,000 downside level.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin continues to struggle to overcome key resistance levels, trading 0.6% lower at $74,466 as the tech rally fails to inspire cheer in crypto markets. ... Political uncertainty post-U.S. midterms and ETF outflows are keeping investors cautious and making a sustained recovery more difficult, says Antonio Di Giacomo at XS.com. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsBitcoin’s decline to $74,466 despite a tech rally supports caution on the bounce; Di Giacomo argues ETF outflows and political uncertainty are making a sustained recovery harder.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
$BTC trades near $75k on Monday after a failed push above $80k. ETF outflows were the heaviest since early July and short-term holders are near break-even, while leverage and demand for protection stay high. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe heaviest ETF outflows since early July reinforce the missing-buyers thesis near $75,000; elevated leverage and demand for protection add to the case for caution on a bottom.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
There are signs of tentative Bitcoin buying interest after the recent selloff, but that doesn't yet imply a reversal, says Linh Tran at XS.com. ... Key drags--particularly ETF outflows and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates--have yet to improve enough to clear the way for an uptrend. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedTentative buying slightly challenges the missing-buyers view, but Tran argues persistent ETF outflows and rate expectations still obstruct a sustained Bitcoin uptrend.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Still, the cryptocurrency market retains its consistent pattern of weakness, says Julian Pineda at StoneX. Only a handful of currencies have managed convincing stability in recent sessions, as the absence of steady demand allows selling pressure to regain control, he says. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe assessment that unsteady demand lets selling regain control supports the view that Bitcoin’s bounce lacks buyers and that weakness may persist.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Bitcoin , the oldest and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, fell by more than 2% to $73,708, the lowest price since August. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe fall to $73,708 confirms the bearish scenario: Bitcoin lost $75,000 support and has already traded through the $74,000 downside level.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Hyperliquid whales are adding to their bitcoin:native shorts. Their net positioning turned short 2 weeks ago after 7 months of being long. Short exposure is now the largest since October 2025. The last time they were this short, price moved down considerably. x.com
AlvaSupportsHyperliquid whales’ largest short exposure since October 2025 reinforces caution around Bitcoin’s $75,000 support; Glassnode notes that the last comparable positioning preceded a considerable decline.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Open interest climbed by about $1B during the US session drop, and by almost $500M more into today's US session. Funding cooled slightly but is now ramping up again. Longs look to be stepping back in. x.com
AlvaMixedAbout $1.5B in added open interest and apparent returning longs support another sub-$75,000 sweep, but challenge the view that most downside liquidity has been cleared.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $76,122 in European morning trade after hitting $75,131 overnight, its lowest level since mid-September, LSEG data showed. ... "Stronger employment and wage growth could reinforce expectations of restrictive monetary policy, strengthening the dollar and placing renewed pressure on bitcoin toward $75,000, followed by potential support around $72,000," Zaye Capital Markets chief investment officer Naeem Aslam said in a note. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedThe rebound from $75,131 to $76,122 leaves the sub-$75,000 sweep pending; Aslam warns strong jobs data could renew pressure toward $75,000, with potential support around $72,000.glassnode
Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research
Yesterday's drop pushed about 60% of the bitcoin:native held by recent buyers below its cost basis. A day earlier, they were back in profit. ... For now, that lowers the risk of recent buyers cashing out into strength. x.com
AlvaSupportsWith about 60% of recent buyers’ Bitcoin underwater, Glassnode sees less risk of selling into strength for now, supporting more attractive upside after the drop.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The flagship cryptocurrency gave back post-Election Day gains to trade 5.5% lower at $75,940. ... Big Tech took a beating in the midterms, with voters across the Midwest and South passing bans on data center construction. ... Crypto prices, which tend to track with the movement of tech stocks, followed closely behind. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe reversal of Bitcoin’s post-election gains as markets reassess voter-approved data-center bans challenges the view that election-related bad news has already been absorbed.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Crypto markets are also facing pressure from the Binance hack, with investors withdrawing $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $900 million of those outflows. x.com
AlvaChallengesReported spot Bitcoin ETF withdrawals weaken the case for sustained institutional demand and suggest the Binance hack is still generating selling pressure, challenging the bad-news absorption thesis.
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
Bitcoin tumbled to a seven-week low as a rout in technology shares spilled into risky assets, hurting sentiment in digital assets already under pressure from industry-specific woes. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe seven-week low and worsening sentiment weaken the view that Bitcoin has absorbed the bad news and that its cycle bottom is clear.