Joestar
Crypto Analyst, DeFi Analytics Tools Builder, Perpetuals & Tokenization
Pendle's product-market fit wasn't strong enough: it was losing TVL even before the recent DeFi hacks. Capital allocators care about altcoins that make revenue, and Pendle isn't one, while its vote-escrow token model forces holders to lock up in a market where altcoins mostly fall over the long term. @katexbt adds that nobody wants to be in DeFi after the hacks, with layered yield turning into a liability in a bear market. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Pendle is not undervalued: its ve(3,3) token model, which almost always ends badly, is unwinding as activity falls. It just saw its biggest unstaking cooldown, $1.3M; no one is staking, everyone is exiting, activity keeps declining, and new apps such as Nunchi and Supernova Labs on MegaETH offer other ways to trade rates. At 21x P/E it is not that cheap, contrary to @Flowslikeosmo's claim that it is the most undervalued asset in DeFi. x.comÂ
Weak liquidity and insufficient buying pressure leave altcoins vulnerable to another liquidation wave. Many sit near support while selling pressure persists, so even a small selloff could trigger liquidations; a bounce is still possible, but the bottom is not convincing yet. A further major drop would offer better entries in bitcoin, ether, Pendle and Bittensor, whose long-term potential remains intact. x.comÂ
Cardano is large-cap vapour trending toward zero: a $7B fully diluted valuation is utterly ridiculous for a legacy infrastructure project that has delivered nothing. Everyone holding for the last six years is at a loss, and the next cycle is unlikely to repump it because retail now has more attractive frontier equities to chase. Long revenue-producing crypto assets with value accrual and short vapour infrastructure remains a good long-term trade. x.com x.comÂ
Pendle is highly mispriced because it has Michael Saylor's apparent blessing while few are paying attention. Saylor started following Pendle, its team and even PendleIntern, something no other altcoin can claim, and Bitcoin's biggest bull is bullish on a coin with roughly a $300M market cap. The first target is $5. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hyperliquid is among the crypto projects proving that real revenue used for buybacks and burns drives the best long-term performance. Tokens without revenue, or whose buybacks do not offset emissions and unlocks, are inflationary assets relying on sentiment. Projects with revenue and value accrual, including Hyperliquid and GEODNET, held up surprisingly well through the bear market. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin staking tokens such as Babylon and Stacks keep falling even as bitcoin stays strong because their token models, not their products, are broken. Staking rewards are paid in the native token, so many users sell them, while unlocks and new supply grow faster than demand. Low liquidity magnifies the drops. Babylon, for example, has a $50M market cap against $3.9B in total value locked. x.comÂ
Pendle's growing RWA yield markets could generate trading fees that fund PENDLE buybacks. Its RWA stack is around $1.3B, with Coinbase tokenized equities and Franklin Templeton bond exposure expanding distribution. 80% of protocol fees fund open-market buybacks for sPENDLE holders, recently running ahead of new emissions. PENDLE is not yet priced like onchain rates infrastructure, but a rerating needs recurring fees, not just TVL; Morpho collateral also carries liquidation risk. x.com x.comÂ
Hyperliquid, Aerodrome and Sky generate revenue and will be rerated as crypto returns to fundamentals, even as Bitcoin's price action is unnerving. These tokens make money and reallocate it back to holders; projects without revenue, a real path to it, good tokenomics or institutional appeal will be stuck in the old era. x.comÂ
Aave's token is tanking because holders have lost faith in leadership. Wasted operating spending, a proposal to issue a new Horizon token that would divert revenue from AAVE, and a forced v4 migration alienated core advocates and users, and business partners such as Ripple are leaving. Users did not want to switch to v4, and v3's longer-term utility is in question. Aave's team replies that the Horizon proposal was removed after feedback and that dominance has risen since 2024. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Pendle is extracting more fees per dollar of TVL than a year ago, the capital efficiency expected of a business with a moat. Trailing-year fees are down 18% while TVL is down 79%, so fees fell about four times slower. sPENDLE buybacks passed 2 million tokens in six months, and PENDLE emissions are down 76% since January. x.comÂ
Ondo is grifting garbage that deliberately misrepresented its total value locked to pump insiders' net worth and create exit liquidity. It is also a worthless governance token with a high fully diluted valuation. The verdict answers @PWebborn's Elliott Wave review of ONDO alongside OP and PEPE. x.comÂ
