Fasanara Capital's leveraged SK hynix long is under pressure, and SK hynix is headed to $130 before $162. Its $21.6m position is down $2.66m, over 100% of margin, and the long gets cut by Friday. x.com
kook
Crypto Trader, Creator of KookLetter
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
SK hynix's expected widening supply-demand gap makes the 2028 downcycle implied by its valuation seem impossible. SK hynix management says its shares are undervalued relative to earnings and cash flow, and that assessment rings true. x.com x.com
SK hynix looks like the weakest storage short because it has fallen behind. More negative news may follow beyond HBM4; its LPDDR6 is reportedly well behind Samsung's. x.com x.com
SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.com
SK hynix's 'insane' earnings set up a sharp move higher in the shares. x.com
Steadily falling whale accumulation accompanies SK hynix's mid-term downtrend. Accumulation is now 13.9%, and the stock has made lower highs and lows since the descending blue ribbon formed around $176-$181. Support is at $125 and $143.50, with resistance around $154 and $168. x.com
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
A new sell-side forecast for SK hynix's Q4 operating profit strengthens its low-valuation case. The report looks for a 40% sequential rise to $88B, up 560% year over year. SK hynix might earn over $350B in operating profit in 2027 against an $800B market cap, or about 2x EV/operating profit after accounting for cash and its Kioxia stake. It could afford to buy back half its shares over three years. x.com
SK hynix is a leveraged $1.5 trillion company headed for a "doomsday" reckoning. Its shares have already dropped from $194 last week to $120. x.com